2015 NFL Preview Week 6 – San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers

In this week six NFL matchup, the 2 and 3 San Diego Chargers visit the 5 and 0 Green Bay Packers. The point spread is at 10.5 while the over/under sits at 50.5. Both are large, partly due to San Diego’s poor defense and also because the Pack is a scoring machine. The Chargers are allowing 26.8 PPG, while Green Bay is tallying an average of 27.4 PPG.

The Chargers have done well in terms of putting points on the scoreboard, as they are averaging 23.2 PPG. However, they may have a tough time reaching that total against the Packers, which has a defense that is allowing only 16.2 PPG.

San Diego Offense vs. Packer Defense

Phillip Rivers has some great stats. He comes into the game with a QB rating of 103.9 and a pass completion rate of 71.3%. Rivers has tossed 10 TD passes. However, he can be hot and cold. He has also thrown five interceptions and has been sacked 14 times. His major outlets are WR Keenan Allen (3 TDs) and TE Ledarius Green (2 TDs).

The ground game does its job overall. RB Danny Woodhead has been solid, averaging 4.2 YPA and garnering 2 TDs. The primary running back, Melvin Gordon, is averaging 3.8 YPA. Gordon has not scored and he has lost two fumbles. Kicker Josh Lambo has a tough time from 40-plus yards. That can be a factor in this game.

The Green Bay defensive numbers are impressive, as they have already accumulated 20 sacks, 8 INTs, and 5 FF. The LB squad is ferocious and includes Clay Matthews (4.5 Sacks) and Julian Peppers (4.5 Sacks). The pass D is doing a fine job too. CB Quinten Rollins leads the team with 2 INTs. Rivers will have a tough time against these guys.

Green Bay Offense vs. San Diego Defense

QB Aaron Rodgers is impressive in everyway. His stats are topnotch, 13 TDs, 2 INTs, 117.4 QBRAT, and his leadership skills are finely honed. Although there’s a lot of depth in the receiving ranks, his two top pass catchers, James Jones and Randall Cobb, are both nursing injuries and are listed as “probable” for Sunday’s game. Together, they have nine touchdown catches. You should expect them to play. RB Eddie Lacy has done a good job leading the run attack, while kicker Mason Crosby has proven to be accurate.

The stats for the Charger D are fairly underwhelming. They’ve notched 4 INTs, 8 sacks, and have 19 PD. These are average at best. However, they are three of three on forced fumbles/recoveries and have 19 TFL. Those are sound numbers. Safety Eric Weedle will need to have a big game, while LB Jeremiah Attaochu will need to improve on his sack total of 2.

Other Considerations

San Diego has lost three of its last four games, including a 24-20 defeat at the hands of a Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steeler team. They struggle against teams with decent defenses and get shut down by good ones. Green Bay has a good one.

The Packers are certainly on a roll. Not only because they have won their first five games of the season, but also because the last two wins were by 14 points. They beat the 49ers 17-3 and they were victorious over the Rams by a score of 24-10. The defense has been doing its job well, while the offense has been easily scoring enough to coast to victory.

Best Bets

Despite the large spread, we like the Packers at home against this San Diego defense. The Chargers will have a tough time controlling the balanced offense of the Packers. Plus, Green Bay’s D should matchup well against Phillip Rivers and the San Diego attack. The 50.5 over/under is a tough one. Taking into account recent history and other factors, including how much the Chargers are likely to score, we say go with the under.

October 18, 2015 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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