2015 NFL Preview Week 6 – New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

The Sunday Night Football game features two quality franchises, the New England Patriots (4-0) and the Indianapolis Colts (3-2). The difference between these two teams thus far this season would be the Patriots’ ability to seemingly score at will and the Colts’ penchant for either getting blown out or keeping it close enough to win. Nothing ever seems easy for Indy. The spread on this game is interesting as you can, at some books, still get the Pats at minus 7.5, at others at minus 9, and still at others at minus 10. The over/under is at 54.5.

New England Offense vs. Colts Defense

The Patriots come into this games averaging 37.3 PPG. Only the Cardinals are averaging more, and just barely. Tom Brady is playing like a MVP. He’s got a QB Rating of 121.5, has tossed 13 TDs, and has not thrown a pick yet. He’s completing 72.5% of his passes with many of those going to WR Julian Endelman (3 TDs) and TE Rob Gronkowski (4 TDs). The running game is also solid with Dion Lewis (2 TDs) averaging 5.0 YPA and LeGarrette Blount (3 TDs) averaging 4.7 YPA.

Can the Colts stop the Pats? They cannot simply out score New England and win. Indy has to stop Brady and the New England scoring machine. They have a fairly good pass defense, but they are not noted for putting pressure on QBs. The two major pass defenders are SS Mike Adams (4 PD, 3 INTs) and DB Dwight Lowery (3 PDs, 3 INTs). They will need to make some big plays for this Colt team to have a chance.

Indianapolis Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Will Andrew Luck, who has missed two games, play? It’s not known as of yet. If he does play, will that actually be good for the Colts, as their starter has struggled this season, throwing 7 INTs and just 5 TDs! He’s completed 56% of his passes and has a rating of only 65.0. None of those are good numbers. In the last two games, both of which were wins, backup QB Matt Hasselbeck has done better than his counterpart, tossing 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and completing 63.2% of his passes.

What the Colts need in this game in order to win is continued output from RB Frank Gore (325 YDs, 4.3 AVG. 3 TDs) and some key passes to WR Donte Moncrief (3 TDs). Gore, who has lost two fumbles, has to handle the ball with care, especially against this Patriot D.

This is a very solid New England defense. In just four games, they have managed to manufacture 16 sacks, 6 INTs and 5 FFs. Linebackers Jaime Collins and Dont’a Hightower, DE Chandler Jones, and DL Jabaal Sheard have combined for 12 sacks. DB Duron Harmon and CB Logan Rynan each have 2 INTs and 2 PDs. This defense has shut down many fine teams, allowing only 19.0 PPG.

Other Considerations

Former Patriot kicker Adam Vinatieri is 5 of 7, missing from 30+ and 50+. For New England, Stephen Gostkowski is 10 of 10, including two from 50+. That may be a factor, as it was earlier when the Pats played the Steelers and Pittsburgh’s kicker missed two important attempts.

New England has easily handled their last two opponents, soundly beating the Jags 51-7 and the Cowboys 30-6. Their average margin of victory in four games is 14+ points. On the other hand, all of Indy’s wins, which have occurred over the past three games, have been by seven or fewer points with the average being four points.

Best Bets

Take the Pats, even if it’s at minus 9. This is a tough team to stop, and it’s doubtful the Colts have enough on either side of the ball to be a major threat. The over/under of 54.5 seems a tad high for this one. A score of 30-10 looks likely and not 38- 17. Indy is averaging under 20 PPG. Take the under if betting it.

October 18, 2015 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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