2015 NFL Preview Week 5 – Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This Week 5 NFL matchup brings together two 1-3 teams as the Chicago Bears travel to play the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs are anywhere from -9 to -10.5 favorites and the over/under is at 45. The Bears hold a defensive advantage against the pass, while Kansas City has the upper hand in defending versus the run. When it comes to scoring points, the Chiefs are at plus eight when compared to Chicago. Both teams are allowing 31.3 PPG.

Chicago Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

The Bear offense has been run dependent as of late. QB Jay Cutler, who returned to action against Oakland last week, missed the week prior due to injury. He’s been limited in practices and is questionable for Sunday but will probably play. This should help the Bears. He had a decent game in his return last week, hitting 65% of his passes and tossing 2 TDs and 1 INT in 22-20 winning effort.

Cutler’s primary receiver has been TE Martellus Bennett (24 REC, 8.4 AVG, 2 TDs), while WR Marquess Wilson (9 REC, 16,6 AVG, 0 TDs) has shown some possible big play ability. RB Matt Forte has some good numbers with 367 yards in four games. He’s run the ball 84 times, averaging 4.4 YPA. Forte has crossed the goal line once and also lost one fumble.

Although the Chiefs are better at run defense than the Bears, they are still allowing more than 100 yards per game. The team’s pass D is really lacking. They have just one pick and total of nine sacks. The Bears O-line has allowed a total of nine sacks. It’s doubtful that the Chiefs will be able to neutralize Cutler if he plays, and it’s expected Forte can have a good day at running back. For KC to hold Chicago’s offense at bay, Justin Houston (13 Solo Tackles, 3 Sacks, 1 TFL) will need to have a solid game.

Kansas City Offense vs. Bears Defense

Kansas City QB Alex Smith has racked up some decent yards in the air. But overall his stats are lacking, as he’s hit on 65% of his passes for 4 TDs and 3 INTs. He’s been sacked a total of 18 times, which calls his mobility into question in a major manner. He two primary go-to receivers are wide out Jeremy Maclin (28 REC, 14.2 AVG, 1 TD) and TE Travis Kelce (21 REC, 14.0 AVG, 2 TDs).

RB Jamal Charles, who’s also used as a receiver, has run for 306 yards, averaging 5.2 YPA while accumulating four touchdowns. He also has 20 catches and one score as a receiver. Charles has lost one fumble as a receiver and one as a runner, while Kelce has also lost one fumble.

The Bear pass D is more effective than their rush defense. Still, this defense is on a par with KC’s. DT Jarvis Jenkins (17 Tackles Total, 3 Sacks) is a massive force. As a team, Chicago has six sacks and five tackles for a loss. Their special teams have been prone to mistakes, giving up two TD returns on kickoffs.

Other Considerations

Chicago kicker Robbie Gould has been perfect going 9 for 9 including three field goals from 50-plus yards. He has missed one extra point, but despite that, his long-ball kicking chops have been right on target. For the Chiefs, kicker Cairo Santos has made 10 of 11, missing one from plus-50.

After Kansas City beat the Texans in the first game of the season, they lost three straight to the Broncos, Pack, and Bengals. They are struggling. The Bears lost big to the Packers, Cardinals, and Seahawks, but last week made some progress against a weak Raiders team.

Best Bets 

The Bears have a point differential of minus 57, while the Chiefs are at minus 25. For some that may be the difference-maker in this game. But the Bears should be able to handle Kansas City’s air attack and equalize the run game. Chicago may lose outright, but we like them against the 10.5 spread. A 24-14 win puts this game over, but that bet is less promising. Place two to three units on Chicago at +10.5 and perhaps one on the over. If Cutler does not play, then go with KC and the under.

October 10, 2015 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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