2015 Week 3 NFL Preview: Kansas City vs. Green Bay Packers

The NFL Monday night game has the Green Bay Packers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. The Pack has won its first two of the season, travelling to Chicago to beat the Bears 31-23 in the initial week and then hosting Seattle and taking them down 27-17. The Chiefs, who are 1-1, went on the road to beat the Houston Texans 27-20 and then played a game at home where they lost to the Denver Broncos due to late-game miscues. That score was 31-24.

Kansas City

Let’s face it the Chiefs have a lot going for them. Their leading rusher, Jamaal Charles, is capable of making the big play at any time. He’s averaging a healthy 4.9 YPA and has scored one TD. However, Charles has also lost one fumble. That fumble was the big one that gave Denver the win late in the fourth quarter.

TE Travis Keice has 10 receptions for 164 yards. He’s averaging 16.4 YPC and has crossed the goal line twice. Jeremy Maclin, who has caught nine balls, is averaging 12.1 YPC. The big concern is quarterback Alex Smith. Smith, who brings some solid stats into this Monday night game, has a tough time playing consistently. He’s thrown 3 TDs, has a QB rating of 90.7, and a completion rate is 65.5%. However, he has been sacked 6 times and has thrown 2 interceptions.

KC’s two standouts on defense are CB Marcus Peters and linebacker Justin Houston. Peters, who has 7 passes defended, 2 interceptions, and a touchdown, has been exemplary thus far, and Houston is turning into a solid quarterback threat. Thus far he leads the team in sacks with three. The D will need to be stellar in order to keep this team in the game.

Green Bay 

It’s true that the Packers put a very fine offense on the turf. Led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers this is an amazingly sound unit. Rodgers has been extraordinary in the pocket, throwing five TD passes, getting sacked just once, and eluding the interception factor. With a QB rating of 128.4 and a completion rate of 76.8%, Rodgers is already having a stellar season.

He has a great group of receivers that includes Randal Cobb. Cobb has 14 receptions for 154 yards and an average gain of 11.8 yards. He’s also made one touchdown while WR James Jones, who’s averaging 16.0 YPC, has crossed into the end zone three times. Anchoring the run game for the Packers, you’ll find James Starks and Eddie Lacey. Both are averaging close to 4.5 YPA.

The Packer D is good against the pass but it suffers versus the run. They will have to stop James Starks and Eddie Lacey if they expect to control the KC rush and win. They will be vulnerable to giving up points.

The Contest

The major difference between these two teams is the QB spot. Rodgers is accomplished, confident, and savvy, while Smith is still struggling to perform at a consistently high level. On paper Green Bay is the better team, but they still need to take advantage of any opportunities given to them by the Chiefs.

Possible Picks

Green Bay is at minus 6.5 and the over is 49 points. Although in the past Green Bay has usually not covered the spread against the Chiefs, most of those games are ancient history. This Packer team is very capable of wining at home by seven points or more.

Expect Rodgers and company to score at least 30 points at home. The Chiefs will also bring some solid scoring chops to Lambeau Field on Monday night. They are certainly able to put 20 or more points on the scoreboard. Green Bay covers and the total number of points will be over 49. This may be a good parlay when you take the Pack and combine it with the over.

September 27, 2015 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

Comments are closed.