2016-NFL-Week 5-Sunday football-Betting previews

Texans at Vikings (-6 ½, 40) – 1:00 PM EST

Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Houston continues to win at home, improving to 3-0 at NRG Stadium after holding off Tennessee last week, 27-20 as four-point favorites. Rookie Will Fuller’s 67-yard punt return for a touchdown broke a 20-20 third quarter tie, while the Texans have yet to allow a touchdown in the second half at home this season. However, Houston has yet to win on the road as the Texans were blanked at New England in Week 3 by a 27-0 count. The Texans posted a 3-4 ATS mark as a road underdog last season, while grabbing an upset as 10-point underdogs at Cincinnati last November.

Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

In spite of losing their starting quarterback and running back, the Vikings keep clicking and remain one of the league’s two unbeaten teams. The Vikings tripped up the Giants on Monday night, 24-10 as 3 ½-point home favorites as Minnesota has allowed only 50 points in four games. Since losing at San Francisco in the 2015 season opener, the Vikings have compiled a remarkable 18-2 ATS record in the past 20 contests, including an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS mark at home.

Best Bet: Houston +6 ½

Patriots (-10 ½, 47) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 4/1

The Patriots survived the first four weeks without Tom Brady, as the star quarterback returns following his suspension for Deflategate. Brady and the offense try to get on track after suffering a 16-0 shutout to the Bills in Week 3 as a 3 ½-point favorite, as New England was limited to below 300 yards offensively. The defense lifted New England during Brady’s ban by allowing 21 points or less in three of those contests, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the UNDER. The Patriots have struggled the last two seasons as a road favorite, compiling a 3-10 ATS record, including a 1-6 ATS run the past seven in this situation.

Record: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1

The Browns haven’t received many breaks this season, but are creeping closer towards picking up that elusive first victory. One week after falling in overtime at Miami, Cleveland erased an early 14-0 deficit at Washington to take a 20-17 fourth quarter lead. However, the Redskins scored the final two touchdowns as the Browns failed to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs in a 31-20 defeat. Cleveland returns to FirstEnergy Stadium for its second home game this season after blowing a 20-0 advantage in a 25-20 defeat to Baltimore in Week 2 as four-point ‘dogs. Last season, the Browns posted a 1-3 ATS mark as a double-digit underdog, as Cleveland faces New England for the first time since a 27-26 loss at Gillette Stadium as 9 ½-point ‘dogs in 2013.

Best Bet: Cleveland +10 ½

Redskins at Ravens (-4, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The battle of the Beltway takes place for the first time since 2012 when the Redskins knocked off the Ravens in overtime, 31-28. Washington has erased an 0-2 start by picking up consecutive victories over the Giants and Browns to reach the .500 mark. Quarterback Kirk Cousins topped the 300-yard mark in each of Washington’s two losses, but has thrown five touchdowns and been intercepted just once in the last two wins. Since the beginning of 2015, the Redskins have produced a solid 10-6 ATS record as an underdog, but Washington owns an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as a road ‘dog under Jay Gruden against AFC opponents.

Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Ravens suffered their first loss of the season last Sunday in a 28-27 setback to the Raiders as 3 ½-point favorites. Baltimore overcame a 14-3 deficit to take a 27-21 lead in the final minutes, but the Raiders came out on top thanks to Michael Crabtree’s third touchdown catch of the day. The Ravens have not been a productive home favorite since 2015 by compiling a 2-7-1 ATS mark in the past 10 games at M&T Bank Stadium when laying points. Joe Flacco has won six of his last seven home games against NFC foes since 2012, but Baltimore is 2-2-1 ATS in this situation as a favorite.

Best Bet: Washington +4

Falcons at Broncos (-6, 47) – 4:05 PM EST

Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

Following an opening week loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have roared back with three consecutive victories to take over first place in the NFC South. Atlanta won only one divisional game last season, but the Falcons have doubled that total in the last 13 days with victories over the Saints and Panthers. Atlanta dropped 45 points on New Orleans in Week 3, but put up 48 points in a 48-33 triumph over the defending NFC champions last week. Matt Ryan torched Carolina’s defense for 503 yards and four touchdowns, including 300 of those yards to wide receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons continue to cash as an underdog under Dan Quinn by owning a fantastic 8-2 SU/ATS record when receiving points since 2015.

Record: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat this season by winning their first four games. Since rallying past Carolina in Week 1, the Broncos have won each of their past three contests by double-digits each, including a 27-7 blowout of Tampa Bay last Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Siemian left last week’s victory with a shoulder injury, but the former Northwestern standout is expected to start on Sunday. The Broncos have struggled as a home favorite since last October, posting a 1-5-1 ATS mark in the last seven in this role with the lone win coming against the Colts in Week 2.

Best Bet: Denver -6

Bills at Rams (-2, 39 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Bills have rebounded from an 0-2 start to pick up victories the last two weeks against the Cardinals and Patriots in the underdog role. Buffalo pitched a 16-0 shutout of New England in Week 4 as the Bills’ offense put up 378 yards, including 246 yards through the air from Tyrod Taylor. The defense has held three of its four opponents to 18 points or less, while both road games have finished UNDER the total. Buffalo has covered in three of five opportunities as a road underdog of three points or less since last season, but the Bills have lost each of their past two road games against NFC opponents.

Los Angeles
Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The biggest September turnaround took place in Southern California as the Rams rebounded from an ugly shutout loss at San Francisco to win three straight games. The Rams own an impressive 2-0 division record following victories over the Seahawks and Cardinals, two playoff teams from last season. Los Angeles has been outgained in all four games this season, but own a +8 turnover margin during its three-game winning streak. Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams have compiled an 8-11 ATS mark in the role of a favorite, while being favored at the Coliseum for the first time since their move to Los Angeles.

Best Bet: Buffalo +2

Bengals (-1, 45) at Cowboys – 4:25 PM EST

Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Bengals avoided a 1-3 start by beating the Dolphins last Thursday night, 22-7 to reach the .500 mark. Cincinnati scored six times, but found the end zone only once as A.J. Green hauled in 10 receptions for 173 yards and the Bengals’ only touchdown. The offense has been productive from a yardage standpoint, but in two games they have been limited to one touchdown. Since the start of last season, Cincinnati has been nearly automatic away from Paul Brown Stadium by cashing in nine of the past 10 road games.

Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Cowboys have rebounded nicely since a one-point loss in the season opener to the Giants by winning three consecutive games. Dallas hasn’t faced great quarterbacks in the last two weeks (Brian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert), but the Cowboys managed to pull off victories in the favorite role against Chicago and San Francisco. The Cowboys hope to get wide receiver Dez Bryant back on the field after missing last week’s game with a knee injury. Dallas is facing its first AFC foe this season, as the Cowboys dropped three of four interconference games last season, but all three losses were without quarterback Tony Romo.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -1

October 9, 2016 by : Posted in NFL No Comments

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