2016-NFL-Sunday football-Week 1 – Games betting preview

Line Moves

Sticking with moves, listed below are the biggest shifts as of Saturday afternoon from the opening numbers available in April. The largest adjustments were directly related to quarterbacks (Bridgewater, Romo, Brady) that will be missing Week 1 due to injuries and suspensions.

Minnesota at Tennessee: 42 ½ to 40
Buffalo at Baltimore: 43 to 44 ½
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: 49 to 46
Detroit at Indianapolis: 49 to 50 ½
New England at Arizona: 51 to 44 ½
Los Angeles at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 42 ½

Week 1

The opening week is never an easy handicap but there are some solid opening game trends that are in play for Week 1.

Saints: Over 4-1 last five. The club is also 1-4 during this stretch, allowing 31, 37, 40 and 42 in the setbacks.

Week 1

The opening week is never an easy handicap but there are some solid opening game trends that are in play for Week 1.

Saints: Over 4-1 last five. The club is also 1-4 during this stretch, allowing 31, 37, 40 and 42 in the setbacks.

Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 in this series last season as the Buccaneers stifled the Falcons to 19 and 20 points while pulling off the rare sweep for Tampa Bay. The totals in those games ranged from 46 ½ to 47 ½ and this week’s number is in the same neighborhood. The big question mark for Sunday is Atlanta’s offense, which averaged 32.4 PPG in its first five games. However, that number was sliced in half (16.1 PPG) in the remaining 11 games. Tampa Bay (21 PPG) wasn’t exactly great offensively last season but some pundits believe new head coach Dirk Koetter should improve that number. Sticking with coaching, former Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is now Tampa Bay’s DC which could give the familiarity edge to the Bucs. Bettors should note that Atlanta has seen a combined 56.3 PPG in its last six home openers.

San Diego at Kansas City: Based on recent history between the pair, it’s a little surprising that the line has gone up. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and the Chargers have been held to 8.3 PPG during this span. Ken Whisenhunt returns to the Bolts as offensive coordinator and he should help an attack that struggled. However, Andy Reid loves the ground-and-pound style and for what it’s worth, the San Diego run defense was horrible in the preseason.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Very hard total to handicap due to the Tony Romo injury but this series is on an 8-2 run to the ‘over’ in the last 10 meetings. Neither the Giants (27.6 PPG) or Cowboys (23.4 PPG) were great defensively last season, which is part of the reason these teams have played to shootouts. Will those units improve? Can the rookie (Dak Prescott) continue his success in the regular season? The answers to those questions will definitely play a part in Sunday’s outcome.

Los Angeles at San Francisco: (See Below)

Under the Lights

New England at Arizona: I’d probably sit on the sidelines with this game just because of the Tom Brady-Jimmy Garoppolo situation for the Patriots. Arizona was a beast offensively (29.4 PPG, 399 YPG) last season and it’s known to be a front-runner, especially at home. I expect the Cardinals to get four to five scores in this game but I’m not sure if a short-handed New England squad will be able to answer, especially now with tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined.

Pittsburgh at Washington: High total for this game and it’s understandable considering the Steelers (25.4 PPG) and Redskins (23.9 PPG) have proven that they can put points on the board behind capable quarterbacks. Washington’s defense (24.4 PPG) is suspect on defense and that unit was exposed at the end of last season. Pittsburgh has gone 9-3 to the ‘over’ in its last 12 versus NFC teams while Washington has also been a decent ‘over’ lean (7-5) versus the AFC in the same span. Lastly, even though the Steelers won’t have running back Le’Veon Bell (suspension) available on Monday, bettors should note that he only played six games last season and the ‘under’ went 6-0 in those contests.

Los Angeles at San Francisco: Based on the recent angles, it’s hard to make an argument for the ‘over’ in this late-night tilt. These teams played to a pair of ugly outcomes last season and the ‘under’ cashed in both contests. The books sent out a bad opener (46) and it’s been pushed down to 43. Levi’s Stadium has been the best ‘under’ bet in football since it opened in 2014, watching the low side go 13-3 in the first 16 games. The Rams saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road last season.

September 11, 2016 by : Posted in NFL No Comments

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