2016 NFL Conference Championship Betting and Beyond – Parlays and Props
We are near the end of the NFL betting season with just the conference championships, Pro Bowl, and Super Bowl left to go. That means that there are only four games remaining. Once the Super Bowl is done, futures for 2016-17 will be posted. After that, sports bettors will focus on basketball, hockey, soccer, and eventually, in April, baseball. The NFL will be back in August with its preseason games, and it will be in full gear in September when regular season games start up.
With four games to go some sports bettors try to make up for losses by wagering on a bunch of props or playing parlays. Others try to expand their bankroll quickly by doing the same thing. There’s a distinct danger for sports bettors who take big risks at the end of the season. The risk is they stand to experience major losses. Here’s some gambling advice for NFL sports bettors who are considering their prospects during the next three weeks.
Assess Your Current State Carefully
Before doing anything, assess where you are. How healthy is your bankroll? Does it make sense whatever your state may be, ahead, behind, or even, to take big risks? After seeing where you are, determine the amount of risk you’re willing to take and how much you have to gain by taking such risks.
As an example, if you’re $100 down on the season and you have $150 with which to bet, does it make sense to risk $150 on the upcoming week’s games or might you be better off risking $50 this week, $50 the next, and $50 on the Super Bowl? It’s best to conserve your cash and risk a bit at a time. Consider this, if you lose $150 on the conference championships, you’ll be $250 in the hole and will either stay there or have to risk even greater losses during the next two weeks,
Stay away from dangerous bets, which include certain props and all parlays. Parlays tend to be bad bets, as the return in relationship to what you risk is skewed and these are very difficult to hit. It seems like you’re risking less due to the fact that you can make numerous bets and get a decent return on a low number of units. But the edge the house gets on parlays is huge when compared to spread, moneyline, or over/under wagers.
Try winning a little at a time by making numerous low-risk bets, rather than attempting to make a killing on one risky wager. Many sports bettors assume an all or nothing attitude this time of year, and they often end up with nothing.
Changing It Up
Stay the course in terms of making standard bets. At the same time, choose a few props to play. Stay away from props on which you can’t do any type of analysis. As an example, coin flips, whether or not there will be overtime, or who will score first are sucker bets. Bets where you can assess possibilities and probabilities, such as total passing yards by a quarterback or total rushing yards by a running back, are much better wagers to make.
Do Your Homework
Whatever bets you make do your research by reading analysts you trust, crunching numbers, and reading the latest news on players, coaches, and the game. Do not pay attention to hype. Hype includes pregame shows that are set up to create interest by having one expert (a former NFL coach or player) disagree with another expert. These shows are designed so that half of the pros take one team and half often take the other with the commentator often making the deciding pick. Plus, beware of hyped news stories designed to suck in an audience rather than providing you with any real substance.
Smart Money Wagers
Where is the smart money going? Don’t pay attention to the general betting public as they are often wrong. Going with the favorite because they are the favorite is a bad move. Assess what player, coach, or situation will make a difference in a game. History is interesting, but not a determining factor in any game. Stay in the here and now when assessing each team and the various match ups and you’ll make smarter choices.