NFL picks against the spread, Week 15: Focusing on some home cooking
I’m back with my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread. We are going mostly home teams, and mixing in a pair of underdogs.
We’re back for another round of my 2014 SuperContest picks, and hopefully I have hit rock bottom. For the first time this season, I was 0-5 in my SuperContest picks. At this point, I’m just sort of floundering along, hoping for the best. I find myself sitting at 32-38 on the season. There are three weeks remaining, which means I need some 4-1 or 5-0 performances to get myself back to .500 before the season ends. Maybe we’ll start this week. Or maybe I’ll just continue my freefall!
The SuperContest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here. The contest runs all season long, but starting next week, participants who registered before Labor Day (that includes me) start a mini-contest covering the best record over the final three weeks of action. Maybe that is where I will get back into the swing of things. Yeah, that’s what will happen!
Here are my picks for Week 15 with home teams in caps.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10) over Oakland Raiders: Consider this a wager on the revenge factor. The Kansas City Chiefs are struggling right now, having lost three straight, including a matchup at Oakland. They return home looking to avenge that loss. The Raiders are playing solid football, having covered the spread in four of their last six games. They are also 6-1 against the spread when installed as at least touchdown underdogs. It all points to Oakland, but count me in for some divisional revenge.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: I have no problem picking against the Jaguars on the road as such a big underdog. The Ravens have covered in their last five games against teams with losing records, and I expect it to continue. The Ravens have been inconsistent at times, but that offense can explode against bad defenses. The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season, and those struggles will continue.
ATLANTA FALCONS (+2.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers: The Falcons and the rest of the NFC South are awful this season, but Atlanta is 4-2 ATS at home, and 4-2 ATS in their last six overall games. The Steelers are playing solid football lately, but prior to last week’s win and cover against Cincinnati, they had failed to cover the spread in three straight games. I think they revert to that this week.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10) over San Francisco 49ers: This might be a big divisional matchup, but the 49ers are circling the drain. They have shown absolutely nothing on offense the last two weeks, and have dealt with offensive struggles all season. A double-digit spread in a divisional game is a big spread, but the 49ers might not find the end zone on Sunday. Look for the Seahawks to win with ease.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: The Eagles went into Dallas and got a huge win on Thanksgiving, easily rolling the Cowboys, 33-10. And yet, it remains hard for me to trust a team that has Mark Sanchez as their starting quarterback. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and I am inclined to think that continues this week.