San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The San Antonio Spurs return home in Game 5 to face the ‘serge’ing Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night. The Spurs are -4.5 point favorites over the Thunder with an over/under point total set at 206.
Head to head, the Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings while the home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Thunder on the other hand are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest and 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Here’s an interesting stat for you: The Oklahoma City Thunder are a perfect 6-0 against the San Antonio Spurs this season with Serge Ibaka in the lineup. You will also remember that two seasons ago, the Thunder were down 2-0 against this same Spurs squad and went on to win the next four games in a row to advance to the NBA finals. I’m not saying this is going to happen again, but it’s a real possibility should OKC take out tonight’s game and then go back home for Game 6, where they would be super confident to say the least.
Normally you would go back and look at how Games 1 and 2 turned out to get a bit of a feel how tonight’s game is going to play out, but we can’t really do that given Ibaka was missing in those two contests. If you like the Spurs tonight, you are banking on the fact that they absolutely blew out OKC in the first two games of this series by an combined 52 points. But on the other hand, if you like the Thunder, you have to like that fact that they are 6-0 against San Antonio with big Serge manning the middle.
After thinking about this one for a bit, I just can’t look past OKC and the points. Yes, I realize that all four games in this series has been decided by double-digits (well Game 3 was only nine points but you get what I’m saying), but at some point, these two teams have to play a close game and I think that is going to happen tonight. I could definitely see a scenario where the Thunder win this one straight up.
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 San Antonio Spurs