San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
The San Antonio Spurs look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. The Spurs won game one, 90-85. The Spurs are -6 point favorites over the Mavericks with an over/under point total set at 198.
Despite getting only a combined 22 points from Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks only lost to the Spurs by five points in game one. The Mavs also shot only 33.3 percent from three and 41.2 percent from the field in the loss. Those percentages are a far cry from a Mavericks club that shoots 47.3 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from downtown on the season. Still, Dirk is shooting 53.9 percent from the field in his last five games, and the Mavericks are now 13-1 SU in their last 14 games when holding an opponent under 100 points. The Dallas Mavericks are also 45-38 ATS overall and 28-14 ATS on the road.
The Spurs shot only 17.6 percent from three in the victory, but were able to grab 40 defensive rebounds and received 48 combined points from Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. The Spurs improve to 16-0 SU in their last 16 games when holding their opponents to less than 100 points. At home, the Spurs have been on offensive machine, shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 41.5 percent from three on the season. Duncan is shooting 54.8 percent from the field in his last three games. The San Antonio Spurs are 45-38 ATS overall and 20-22 ATS at home.
The Mavericks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings, while the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The over is 8-0 in the Mavericks last eight games playing on two days rest. These are also two high powered offensive teams that scored 175 points in game one despite shooting poorly from three. My play will be on the over, as you can expect much better shooting performances.