Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs look to even the ledger against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night in Game 4. The Spurs are -4 point favorites over the Mavericks with an over/under point total set at 204.
Head to head, the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas while the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Spurs on the other hand are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Thanks to some last-second heroics from Vince Carter, the Dallas Mavericks took a commanding 2-1 series lead over the San Antonio Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs. In a game where everyone thought the Spurs were going to bounce back after their blowout loss in Game 2, it was the home team Mavs who had the last laugh as Vince Carter drained a three-pointer from the left corner as time expired to give his team a 109-108 victory and control of this series. While Carter sealed the win, it was Monta Ellis who was the standout on Saturday night as he scored a game-high 29 points and some key baskets down the stretch.
So can the Spurs even the series at two games apiece heading back to San Antonio for Game 5? You bet they can. Let’s not forget that if Carter misses that game winner, the Spurs all of a sudden have a 2-1 lead and control of this series. When you look back at Game 3, SA shot 54 percent from the field (compared to 51 percent for the Mavs), they outrebounded the home team (by 1) and they had less turnovers.
I was initially leaning towards the Spurs in this one, but I just can’t pass up on the points. I do think San Antonio will win and even the series, but the Mavs will cover in another close finish.
Dallas Mavericks +4 San Antonio Spurs