Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
The Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Orlando Magic to town on Monday night. The Magic are -1.5 point favorites over the Bucks with an over/under point total set at 203.5.
Head to head, the Magic are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee while the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, but just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Magic on the other hand are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 road games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
This over has to be the play here right? In case you hadn’t noticed, the Milwaukee Bucks have been killing ‘overs’ for the past couple of weeks as it is 5-0 in their last five home games and 10-1 in their last 11 overall. While the Bucks have been giving up a bunch of points all season long, their offense has improved dramatically as the regular season comes to a close and they are coming off four straight 100-point outings. When looking at their recent results, they are averaging 107 points over their last seven games and they have conceded at least 100 points in 13 of their last 14 games overall. Also, their last three outings have all eclipsed 215 total points
While the Orlando Magic are a bottom five offense in the league, they are still averaging 101 points over their last 10 games, thanks in large part to their triple overtime thriller against New York a couple of weeks ago when they poured in 129 big ones. Still, they are coming off a 112-point outing against San Antonio in their last game and three of their last four road games have all finished on 212 points or greater. Defensively, they have allowed an average of 105 points over their last 10 matches.
Do you need more? Well, their two meetings this season finished on totals of 215 and 204 and the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six in Milwaukee. With nothing left to play for except lottery seeding, I don’t foresee a lot of defense being played in this one. Let’s ride the Bucks ‘over’ train until they give us a reason not too.