Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans face off on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in a game between two AFC teams who have doe a complete 180 from where they were a year ago. The Chiefs are -6.5 point favorites over the Texans with an over/under point total set at 39.5.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone from drafting first in the NFL Draft to a tie for first place in the AFC West in less than six months. The Chiefs are off to a 6-0 start and while a number of changes have been made, the biggest change is a plus 12 turnover margin. The Chiefs offense is averaging 25.3 points and 326.3 yards per game and while they are 26th in passing, it has been taking advantage of the turnovers that has made the difference. QB Alex Smith has completed 56.5 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and just three interceptions while being sacked 16 times and he has also rushed for 190 yards. Jamaal Charles is averaging 4.2 yards per carry with five touchdowns and he is the KC Leader in receptions with 33 with two of those going for touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe has 20 receptions with two touchdowns, Donnie Avery has 18 catches and a touchdown, and Sean McGrath has 15 catches and a touchdown. The Chiefs defense allows a NFL best 10.8 points per game and a fifth best 306.3 yards per game with 10 interceptions, 31 sacks, and five fumble recoveries. Derrick Johnson has 44 tackles, Justin Houston has 25 tackles including 9.5 sacks, and Tamba Hali has 7.5 sacks. The quickest way to turn a team around is by turning around the turnover margin and the Chiefs have proved it once again.
The Houston Texans are having a disappointing year and like the Chiefs they have turned their turnover margin around but in their case it has left them at minus 12. The Texans offense is averaging just 17.7 points per game while gaining 395.7 yards per game which is a model of inefficiency. Matt Schaub left last week’s game with an injury and if he us unable to go he will be replaced by T.J. Yates who won a playoff game as the Texans QB a few years back. Arian Foster is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and he has 22 receptions but he has just two combined touchdowns thus far and Ben Tate is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and he has 14 receptions but just one total touchdown. Andre Johnson has 44 catches but has failed to find the endzone, DeAndre Hopkins has 25 catches and a touchdown, and Owen Daniels has 24 catches and three touchdowns. Defensively the Texas allow a 29th ranked 295 points per game but are first in yards allowed at 252.8 per game and they have just two interceptions, 14 sacks, and four fumble recoveries. Brian Cushing has 44 tackles, J.J. Watt has 28 tackles and 3.5 sacks, and Whitney Mercilus has 25 tackles and 4.5 sacks. The Texans just are simply not taking advantage of their opportunities and turn the ball over far too much.
Kansas City is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games, 4-9 against the spread against a team with a losing record, and 1-5 against the spread after allowing less than 15 points their previous game. Houston is 0-6 against the spread in their last six road games, 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games overall, and 1-5 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The road team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings of these two.
The numbers simply don’t add up and while it seems to make a ton of sense to take the Chiefs for whom everything is bouncing their way all of the numbers outside of the turnovers point to the Texans winning outright so getting nearly a touchdown is tough to turn down.

Houston Texans +6.5 Kansas City Chiefs

October 16, 2013 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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