San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
The series shifts to San Antonio as the Spurs look to slow down Lebron James and the Miami Heat in Game 3 on Wednesday night. The Spurs are -2 point favorites over the Heat with an over/under point total set at 187.5.
The Spurs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Heat on the other hand are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NBA Championship games.
If I’m a Spurs fan, I’m not that worried about what transpired in Game 2 because you still achieved what you set out to do which was taking one of the first two games of this series on the road. Miami raced away with a 103-84 victory on Sunday night and even though the stats look alarming, I think it was more a case of the Heat playing with their backs to the wall and getting good contributions from the guys like Mike Miller, Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers, who combined to score 41 points on 8-12 from beyond the arc. Once the Heat caught fire in that third quarter, it was all downhill from there for the visitors.
While the Spurs looked ordinary in Game 2, let’s not forget this was a team that had just won seven straight games, which included going 6-1 against the spread in that time period. On the other hand, Miami looked awesome in their first game in Indiana against the Pacers, running away with a 114-96 win in Game 3, yet that was a contest in which there were coming off a Game 2 loss at home. When you look at the Heat’s other two road games in that series, they resulted in seven and 14 point defeats.
Simply put, I think the San Antonio Spurs bounce back in Game 2. I think we get much better games from Duncan and Parker this time around and while I could see Ray Allen being a factor again, I doubt we see the same input from Chalmers and Miller. I think Game 4 is anybody’s game, but this one will belong to the home team.
San Antonio Spurs -2 Miami Heat