Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers collide in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night from South Beach. The Heat are -7.5 point favorites over the Pacers with an over/under point total set at 181.
The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss, but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Pacers on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Conference Finals games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
For all intense purposes, this series deserved to go to a Game 7. Roy Hibbert scored 24 points and pulled down 11 rebounds to lead his Indiana Pacers to a 91-77 victory at home on Saturday night to even the series at three games apiece to book a trip back to Miami for a Game 7. Paul George finished proceedings with 28 points, eight rebounds and five assists as the Pacers held the Heat to 36.1% shooting for the game. Lebron James led the way for Miami with 29 points, but he didn’t get any help from his teammates as they went just 16-51 from the field (31.4%)
I can’t really say I was surprised with the way Game 6 played out. It was pretty much a reverse of Game 5 when Lebron James outscored the entire Indiana team in the third quarter 16-13. Yet, this time, it was the Pacers who pulled away after the major break, outscoring the visitors 29-15 to build a commanding lead. The Heat would make it close again in the fourth, but the Pacers pulled away one last time to run away with a 14 point victory.
If the trend continues, then the Miami Heat should run out comfortable winners tonight. After the first two games of this series were decided by a total of five points, we have seen the last four meetings get decided by an average winning margin of 12.5 points. As far as totals go, the first four games all went over, however, Games 5 & 6 both went under the total.
While I’m aware that Lebron James could go off again like he did in Game 5 in Miami, I just think that Indiana has shown enough in this series and they have played well enough not to put up a good showing tonight. It might sound basic, but this series feels like it’s going to get decided in the final minutes, so I’m comfortable taking the points in this one.
Indiana Pacers +7.5 Miami Heat