Oklahoma City vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder collide with the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 5 on Wednesday night in a must win situation. The Thunder are -4 point favorites over the Grizzlies with an over/under point total set at 185.
Head to head, the Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City while the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Thunder are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a S.U. loss, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinals games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Grizzlies on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinals games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
With their cover in Game 4, the Memphis Grizzlies have now won every game against the spread in this series and have easily been the hottest team in the playoff thus far, having covered in nine straight playoff games, which has to be close to some kind of record. Not only that, but the Grizzlies have also gone 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against Kevin Durant and company.
Despite all of this, Oklahoma City haven’t really been that far off in their last three losses in this series, failing to convert in the closing minutes, which is where Russell Westbrook kind of comes in handy. From a betting stand point, the Thunder have missed the cover in the last two games by half a point in Game 3 and by a full point in Game 4, so they have been very close.
I was all ready to take the Thunder in Game 5, but I have a hard time believing they should be four point favorites. I realize they are back at home facing elimination and while they have played the Grizzlies closer than the final score line would suggest in Games 3 & 4, it’s pretty obvious Memphis is just the better team. It does worry me that the Grizzlies have covered in nine straight games, because that means they are due for a loss one of these days, but the points just look too good to past up here. Kevin Durant should go off for 35+ tonight but I still think this one comes right down to the wire again, so taking the points seems like the logic thing to do.
Memphis Grizzlies +4 Oklahoma City Thunder