Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds meet on Thursday in Miami for game three of their series. The Reds are -200 favorites over the Marlins with an over/under run total set at 7.5.
The Miami Marlins have the worst record in baseball and on Wednesday they lost for the second night in a row to the Reds. On Wednesday Derek Dietrich, Greg Dobbs, and Rob Brantly all had two hits each as the Marlins didn’t score a run on 11 hits. Starting pitcher Alex Sanabia allowed nine hits and four runs while striking out three over 6.0 innings to take the loss and fall to 2-6 on the year. For Thursday’s game Miami starts Jose Fernandez who has won his last two starts. For the season Fernandez has allowed 29 hits and 15 earned runs while striking out 39 for a 2-2 record and a 3.65 ERA.
The Cincinnati Reds are still pressing the Cardinals in the NL Central and though they keep winning they aren’t gaining any ground. On Wednesday Shin-Soo Choo had four hits including two home runs and Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips each had two hits as the Reds scored four runs on 11 hits. Starting pitcher Mike Leake allowed nine hits and struck out six over 6.2 scoreless innings to get the win and go to 3-2 on the season. For Thursday’s game Cincinnati starts Mat Latos who has won his last four starts. For the season Latos has allowed 50 hits and 17 earned runs hwile striking out 47 over 50.1 innings of work for a 4-0 record and a 3.04 ERA.
Miami is 5-14 in their last 19 home games, 14-39 in their last 53 games overall, and 1-7 in their last eight games against the NL Central. Cincinnati is 5-0 in their last five road games, 9-0 in their last nine games against a right-handed starter, and 26-8 in Latos’ last 34 starts. Cincinnati is 6-1 in the last seven meetings of these two.
The total in this one is set aggressively low but I see the score being low as well so my pick is on the under.