Miami Heat vs. Houston Rockets
Lebron James and the Miami Heat welcome James Harden and the Houston Rockets to town on Wednesday night. The Heat are -8 point favorites over the Rockets with an over/under point total set at 206.
The Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference, but just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rockets on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
How can you not love the over in this game? In case you missed it, the Rockets tied an NBA record and set a franchise mark with 23 3-pointers en route to a 140-109 victory over the Golden State Warriors last night. While you can’t base taking the over off one game, consider that Houston is averaging 120 points per game over their last five starts and are only second in the NBA in scoring to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only that, but they are the third worst defensive team in the league as well, meaning they only care about one thing and that’s scoring the ball.
While Miami are generally regarded as a defensive first team, that’s not really the case this season as they are averaging 102.3 points per game, which is the sixth best mark in the league. They do own the league’s 12th best defense, but that’s nothing to ride home about. Like most teams, the Heat score more points when playing in-front of their home crowd and are averaging 106.5 points when playing in South Beach.
If you wanted more evidence to take the over here, consider that these teams combined to score 223 points in their first meeting of the season back in the middle of November. Not only that, but three of the last four meetings have gone over that 223 point mark. Unless both teams just come out and stink it up, I just don’t see how this game goes under.