Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Miami Heat returns home to face cellar dwellers the Charlotte Bobcats on Monday night. The Heat are -13 point favorites over the Bobcats with an over/under point total set 200.
Head to head, the Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Miami, while the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, but just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. The Bobcats are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games overall.
Doesn’t it feel like the Miami Heat has been on the road forever? Granted, the Heat has just played 10 of their last 12 games away from home and 14 of their 19 overall. While we generally assume Miami is just a dominate team wherever they play, that’s not entirely the case this season as they are only one game above .500 on the road. At home however, it’s different story as Lebron James and company have been as good as one in the league playing in-front of their own fans, winning 18 of a possible 21 games in South Beach.
While I’m not crazy about laying this many points to a team having been on the road for seven days and having just flown back from Toronto early today, I just can’t bring myself to take Charlotte here. The Bobcats will surprise us all from time-to-time, but for the most part they play like they are the worst team in the league, and it’s not even close. Charlotte is coming off three straight road losses by an average of 15.3 points, which is even more evidence not to take them tonight.
Miami will crush Charlotte tonight, as I am willing to lay the 13 points.
Miami Heat -13 Charlotte Bobcats