Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns

The Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns face off on Sunday in Indianapolis in a battle of building NFL teams.  The Colts are -3 point favorites over the Browns with an over/under point total set at 44.5.

The Indianapolis Colts already have as many wins as they had a year ago but they are coming off of a tough loss where they were dominated by the Jets. Number one overall draft pick Andrew luck has looked good but has also looked like a rookie at times as he has completed 53.4 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions and he has been sacked 13 times. Donald Brown is averaging 4.0 yards per carry in the Colts backfield and Vick Ballard is averaging 2.3 yards per carry in relief. Reggie Wayne has 41 catches and two touchdowns, Donnie Avery has 21 catches, and rookie tight end Coby Fleener has 17 catches. Defensively Indianapolis allows 29 points per game, 159 rushing yards, and 200 passing yards with two interceptions and 13 sacks. Jerrell Freeman has 49 tackles, Antoine Bethea has 31 tackles, and Robert Mathis has five sacks. Both of the Colts wins have come at home this year.

The Cleveland Browns got their first win of the season last week as they knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals in Cleveland. Brandon Weeden is improving but he has completed just 55.8 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions while being sacked 11 times. Trent Richardson is getting it going in the Browns backfield averaging 3.6 yards per carry with four touchdowns and he has 22 catches out of the backfield and a receiving touchdown. Benjamin Watson has 15 catches, Greg Little has 14 catches, and Josh Gordon has 12 catches with three of them going for touchdowns. Defensively Cleveland allows 27.2 points per game, 131.3 rushing yards, and 294.2 passing yards with 10 interceptions and 15 sacks. Buster Skrine and Craig Robertson each have 41 tackles and D’Qwell Jackson has 40 tackles, three sacks, and two interceptions. The Browns have just one win but they have been in the lead in most of their games and are just a play or two away per game from having a much better record.

Indianapolis is 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games against AFC teams, and 3-13 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the AFC, 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven road games, and 1-3-1 against the spread following a win. The road team is 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five meetings of these two.

We get good value on the Colts who looked bad last week and bad value on the Browns who got their first win last week which makes this a fairly easy choice.

Pick

Indianapolis Colts -3 Cleveland Browns

October 17, 2012 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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