Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

The Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots meet for a week for AFC East NFL game in Orchard Park on Sunday.  The Patriots are -3.5 point favorites over the Bills with an over/under point total set at 50.5.

The Buffalo Bills are once again off to a nice start and they are hoping to avoid the collapse that followed a similar start a year ago. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 58.1 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions while being sacked just once. It has been the walking wounded in the Bills’ backfield as Fred Jackson may return for this one as his replacement C.J. Spiller is now out for at least a few weeks but if not Jackson it will be Tashard Choice and Johnny White. Steve Johnson leads the Bills with 13 receptions and three touchdowns and Donald Jones has 11 catches and a TD. Defensively Buffalo is allowing 26.3 points per game with 100.3 yards per game coming on the ground and 248.3 yards coming in the air and they have nine sacks and four interceptions. Nick Barnett has 23 tackles, George Wilson has 17 tackles, and Kyle Williams has three sacks. All of the high drafting of defensive players appears to be paying dividends for the Bills thus far this season.

The New England Patriots have a losing record for the first time in several years and they will be looking to right the ship. QB Tom Brady has been getting hit in the pocket more than ever but he has completed 66.9 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and an interception while being sacked seven times. Stevan Ridley is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and Danny Woodhead is averaging 2.5 yards per carry to anchor the Pats running game. Brandon Lloyd has 22 catches, Wes Welker has 16 catches, and Rob Gronkowski has 14 catches and two touchdowns as the Patriots appear to just not have a strong receiving corps this year. Defensively New England allows 21.3 points per game with 82 yards against coming on the ground and 262 yards per game coming in the air while they have just two interceptions and three sacks. Jerrod Mayo has 33 tackles, Devin McCourty has 17 tackles, and Don’t’a Hightower has 15 tackles as the Patriots defense continues to be on the field far too long. This Patriots team looks to be in decline as they fail to get pressure on opposing QB’s and their own receivers can’t get open quickly enough for Brady to avoid getting crushed in the pocket.

Buffalo is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against the AFC East, 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record, and 1-3-1 against the spread following a win. New England is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against AFC teams, 35-16-1 against the spread following a loss, and 8-3 against the spread against the AFC East. New England 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games in Buffalo.

The Bills are just playing better football right now and while of course they don’t have a player near the caliber of Brady their defense should have a field day rushing Brady while their secondary will have no problem covering the Patriots receivers.

Pick

Buffalo Bills +3.5 New England Patriots

September 27, 2012 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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