Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
The top and the bottom of the National League Central face off on Monday as the Houston Astros host the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are -160 favorites over the Astros with an over/under run total set at 7.5.
It has been a brutal year for the Houston Astros as they have the worst record in all of baseball. The Astros are 1-9 in their last 10 games, 24-21 at home this season, and they are 21.5 games back in the NL Central standings. As a team the Astros are hitting .240 with Jose Altuve hitting .293, Chris Johnson hitting .265, and Jed Lowrie is hitting .253. As a team the Astros pitching staff has an ERA of 4.62 with the starters at 4.61 and the bullpen at 4.64. For game one against the Reds Houston starts Wandy Rodriguez who has lost four of his last five decisions. For the season Rodriguez has allowed 127 hits and 52 earned runs while striking out 83 over 124.2 innings of work for a 3.75 ERA.
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the top teams in baseball and while they seem to be missing a player or have a weakness here or there they have the best record in the National League. The Reds are 8-2 in teir last 10 games, 24-22 on the road this season, and they have a half of a game lead in the NL Central. As a team the Reds are hitting .249 with Brandon Phillips at .292, Zack Cozart hitting .246, and Jay Bruce at .244. As a team the Reds pitching staff has an ERA of 3.33 with the starters at 3.68 and the bullpen at 2.51. For game one at Houston Cincinnati starts Mat Latos who has two no decisions and a loss in his last three starts. For the season Latos has allowed 106 hits and 55 earned runs while striking out 106 over 114.1 innings of work for a 4.33 ERA.
Houston is 13-39 in their last 52 games overall, 1-7 in their last eight game one of a series, and 1-5 in Rodriguez’s last six starts. Cincinnati is 11-2 in their lst 13 games as a favorite, 6-2 in their last eight road games against a left handed starter, and 8-3 in Latos’s last 11 starts.
The total in this one is set at 7.5 but I see it going over that number which has been set too aggressively to the low side.