Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays close out their weekend series as they face off on Sunday at Fenway Park.  The Red Sox are -175 favorites over Blue Jays with an over/under run total set at 9.5.

The Boston Red Sox appeared heading into the weekend that they were getting back into the American League Wildcard race but heading into Sunday they are looking to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Jays. On Saturday Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a home run and Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez added hits as the Red Sox scored three runs on five hits. On the mound Aaron Cook allowed four hits and five earned runs over 6.1 innings to drop his record to 2-3 on the year. For Sunday’s game Boston starts Jon Lester who has lost three of his last four decisions. For the season Lester has allowed 129 hits and 62 earned runs while striking out 98 over 116.1 innings of work for a 4.80 ERA.

The Toronto Blue Jays are following the same pattern we have seen from them in recent years where they are a solid team who loses when it looks like they are taking the next step and win just when it looks like time to count them out. On Saturday Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia both hit home runs and Brett Lawrie and Rajai Davis added hits as the Blue Jays scored seven runs on seven hits. Starting pitcher Carlos Villenueva allowed four hits and three earned runs while striking out five over 6.1 innings of work to raise his record to 5-0 on the year. For Sunday’s game Toronto goes for the sweep as they start Henderson Alvarez who hasn’t been able to consistently win this year. For the season Alvarez has allowed 129 hits and 54 earned runs while striking out 42 over 113.1 innings of work for a 4.29 ERA.

Boston is 2-6 in their last eight home games against a right handed starter, 8-2 in their last 10 game three of a series, and 1-5 in Lester’s last six home starts. Toronto is 3-6 in their last nine games as an underdog, 3-7 in their last 10 road games, and 2-9 in Alvarez’s last 11 starts. Boston is 4-1 in Lester’s last five games against Toronto.

The Red Sox just aren’t the better team here and Jon Lester has done nothing this season to make me believe he deserves to be a big favorite here making the obvious play the Blue Jays.

Pick

Toronto Blue Jays +155 Boston Red Sox

July 22, 2012 by : Posted in Sportsbook No Comments

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