Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics look to even the series up against the Miami Heat in Game 4 tonight. The Heat are -1 point favorites over the Celtics with an over/under point total set at 182.
Head to head, the Heat are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston, while the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings and the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Conference Finals games and 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat on the other hand are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Finals games, while the 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
I should really just stick to this series because I can’t seem to pick a winner between the Spurs v Thunder, while I have hit every game in this series. Having said that, I’m quite torn on tonight’s game. While I have felt good about picking the first three games, this is easily the hardest game to pick. Even though no one would have expected the Celtics to dominate Game 3 like the way they did, we often see the home team come out winners in Game 3 when they are down 2-0.
While it seems like a cop out to say any team has a chance of winning this one, it’s pretty true. I could see scenario’s play out where both the Celtics and Heat come away with the victory. Having said that, it will be hard for Boston to come back from a 1-3 series deficit, so I’m going with the home team once again. Plus, Boston have more than showed they can keep up with Miami in this series.
Boston Celtics +1 Miami Heat