Golden St. Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Golden State Warriors return home to face the defending champion Dallas Mavericks tonight.  The Mavericks are -5.5 point favorites over the Warriors with an over/under point total set at 195.

Head to head, the Mavericks are 12-26-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings and Mavericks are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Golden State, while the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Warriors are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. Western Conference and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Mavericks on the other hand are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

I love the Warriors here for a number of reasons. Firstly, lets take a look at the against the spread stats. For everyone concerned about the Warriors playing in the second of a back to back, fear not as they are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 playing on no days rest. No only has Golden State been dominate against the Western Conference of late, but they also have been against the Mavericks, covering in 26 of the last 39 meetings and 15 of the last 21 meetings in Golden State. Unlike last season, the Mavs have been poor on the road and especially against teams with a losing record, only covering in one of their last 11 meetings against teams with a sub .500 record.

Dallas is still a dangerous team capable of making another run in the playoffs, however this current team has been really poor on the road all season long. At just 11-16, the Mavs are nothing like last year’s team that won road game after road game. If you thought 11-16 was bad, Dallas is just 3-10 in their last 13 away from home, and two of those wins were by a single bucket against Houston and Orlando. The only road win they have had by over two points since the middle of February whey they came up against a Denver team that lost Andre Miller and Danilo Gallinari with injuries during the game. Now Golden State suffered a big loss in Denver and another one in Portland last night, however this a team that doesn’t give up. The Warriors have suffered recent losses to Portland, Memphis, Utah, New Jersey and Los Angeles twice by a total of 26 points, which equals 4.3 points per loss. I was really impressed how they battled, despite being without their two most important players in Curry and Bogut. Not only that, but the Warriors have beaten the Mavs in their last two home games by combined 31 points. With all of the above, I just don’t see how the Mavericks should be 5.5 favorites here. I don’t go giving out game of the week or month, but if I did, this one would be right up there.

Pick

Golden St. Warriors +5.5 Dallas Mavericks

April 12, 2012 by : Posted in NBA, Sportsbook No Comments

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