California Golden Bears vs. South Florida Bulls

The California Golden Bears and the South Florida Bulls face off in Dayton in the final play-in game of the 2012 NCAA Tournament on Wednesday.  The Golden Bears are -3 point favorites over the Bulls with an over/under point total set at 115.

The California Golden Bears didn’t win the Pac-12 or the Pac-12 Tournament but Mike Montgomery’s team are one of just two Pac-12 teams to make the field of 68 this season. Cal was 11-4 out of conference this year, 2-2 in neutral site games, 0-3 against ranked teams, and they played the 91st ranked schedule in the country. Allen Crabbe is averaging 15.3 points and 5.7 rebounds, Jorge Gutierrez is averaging 13.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, Justin Cobbs is averaging 12.9 points and 5.0 rebounds, and Harper Kamp is averaging 11.3 points and 5.1 rebounds. As a team the Bears are averaging 71.7 points, 16.1 assists, and they are shooting 47.9 percent while defensively they are allowing 61.8 points and their opponents are shooting 41.1 percent. Cal lost by 11 points to Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament, their second loss to the Buffaloes in their last four games overall.

The South Florida Bulls had a bigger and better season than just about anyone expected of them but Stan Heath’s team still found themselves on the bubble when the NCAA Tournament field was about to be announced. The Bulls are in the field but forced to play in a play-in game, something many of the teams who finished behind them in the Big East standings didn’t need to do. USF is 8-7 in out of conference games, 1-3 in neutral site games, and 0-6 against teams ranked in the top 25. Augustus Gilchrist averages 9.6 points and 4.9 rebounds, Toarlyn Fitzpatrick averages 8.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, and Jowanza Poland averages 8.5 points. As a team the Bulls average 59.2 points and they are shooting 43.6 percent while defensively they are allowing 56.9 points and their opponents are shooting 38.8 percent. South Florida hasn’t really put up impressive numbers anywhere else but the all important win column.

California is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 on-conference games, 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall, and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against Big East teams. South Florida is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games following a game which they didn’t cover, 1-5 against the spread in their last six neutral site games, and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.

The total is set at 115 and even so I have this one staying under.

Pick

Under 115

Comments are closed.