Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets hope a visit from the Atlanta Hawks will turn things around.  The Nuggets are -5.5 point favorites over the Hawks with an over/under point total set at 196.

After winning four straight and looking like things were back to normal in Denver, the Nuggets have dropped two of three at home to teams they probably should have beaten. The Hawks on the other hand are in the midst of a four game road trip and having to deal with one of their star players demanding to be traded before Thursday’s deadline. Ironically, Josh Smith is playing the best basketball of his career this season, averaging 17.4 points and 9.6 rebounds. Smith has been even better to start the month of March as he has upped his averages to 25.5 points per game on 50% shooting.

Head to head, the Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Nuggets are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference, but just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. The Hawks on the other hand are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.

Both the Nuggets and Hawks have undoubtedly changed a lot over the years, however the home team has dominated this series dating back to 2008, winning seven of the last eight contests by an average of 13 points per game. The Hawks have been pretty impressive lately, yet they really struggle against Western Conference team, which is music to the ears of Denver who have dominated the East against the spread recently, covering in 23 of the last 28 games against the East. I like Denver to get the cover here.

Pick

Denver Nuggets -5.5 Atlanta Hawks

March 13, 2012 by : Posted in NBA, Sportsbook No Comments

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