San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
The San Francisco 49ers look to bounce back from their Thanksgiving Day loss as they host the St. Louis Rams. The 49ers are -13.5 point favorites over the Rams with an over/under point total set at 38.
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the NFL’s biggest surprises and with five games left to go in the regular season they are close to clinching the NFC West. Jim Harbaugh’s first year as Head Coach has gone better than anyone could have expected but they still need to close the deal and finish strong as there is still a first round bye to be won. Alex Smith has played well within himself completing 62.4 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for 909 yards and five touchdowns and Kendall Hunter has been effective in relief averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Michael Crabtree has 44 receptions, Vernon Davis has 43 catches and five touchdowns, and Delanie Walker has 19 catches. The Niners defense has been outstanding with 25 sacks, 14 fumble recoveries, and 15 interceptions with a plus 16 turnover margin while they are allowing 316.7 yards and 14.6 points per game. NaVarro Bowman has 103 tackles, Patrick Willis has 93 tackles, Aldon Smith has 7.5 sacks, and Carlos Rodgers has five interceptions. San Francisco plays a tough style of football that has worked since the inception of the game: a strong running game and solid defense.
After just missing the playoffs last year the St. Louis Rams have gone back to being a doormat having won just twice this season and positioning themselves for another very high draft pick. The Rams may be faced with a decision at QB where Sam Bradford has completed 54.6 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Steven Jackson continues to carry the load in the backfield averaging 4.7 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns. Brandon Lloyd hasn’t been with the Rams since the start of the season but he still leads them in receptions with 31, Brandon Gibson has 30, and Lance Kendricks has 19. Defensively St. Louis has 29 sacks, 11 fumble recoveries, and 10 interceptions and have a minus three turnover margin while they are allowing 364.1 yards per game and 24.5 points. James Laurinaitis has 90 tackles, Quintin Mikell and Darian Stewart have 61 tackles each, and Chris Long has 10 sacks. It’s clear the Rams are missing some pieces but they have also been hit the hardest in the NFL by injuries.
San Francisco is 10-1-1 against the spread in their last 12 games overall, 9-0 against the spread as a favorite, and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the NFC West. St. Louis is 2-6 against the spread following a loss, 1-5 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games. The favorite has covered in five of the last seven meetings of these two.
The spread in this one has gotten out of hand and the better play on this game is probably on the total which has been set at 38. Both of these teams can play some defense and look for it to be somewhat of a struggle as the Rams try and move the ball with Jackson and the Niners will counter with Gore. This one should slip below the total for the under.