North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Evansville Purple Aces

The North Carolina Tar Heels return home from their close loss in Lexington as they take on the Evansville Aces.  The Tar Heels are -27 point favorites over the Tar Heels with an over/under point total set at 148.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have lost two of their last three games but Roy Williams’ team still find themselves ranked in the top five in the country. The Tar Heels are simply loaded this season and while they have taken the losses recently more than likely they won’t be seeing too many more the rest of the way this year. Harrison Barnes is averaging 17.2 points and 4.2 rebounds, John Henson is averaging 14.1 points and 10.5 rebounds, Tyler Zeller is averaging 13.4 points and 7.2 rebounds, and Kendall Marshall is averaging 10.0 assists per game. As a team UNC is averaging 82.5 points, 41.5 offensive rebounds, and they are shooting 48.4 percent while defensively they are allowing 69.5 points and their opponents shoot 39.1 percent. North Carolina is one of the most talented teams in the nation and as we saw against Kentucky they have the players to matchup with anyone.

The Evansville Aces are off to a 3-3 start and Marty Simmons team aside from being overmatched look to have a bad draw here in a hungry Carolina team. Evansville hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI higher than 200 this year and haven’t won on the road. Colt Ryan is averaging 19.7 points and 5.2 rebounds, Kenny Harris is averaging 13 points and 6.0 rebounds, Ned Cox is averaging 10.5 points, and Denver Holmes is averaging 8.6 points.  Evansville averages 73 points, 31 offensive rebounds, and they shoot 45.1 percent while defensively they are allowing 71.3 points and their opposition shoots 45.6 percent. Evansville’s problems on the boards should be magnified even further here.

North Carolina is 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games with a losing road record, 1-5 against the spread following a cover, and 5-1 against the spread in their last six Tuesday games. Evansville is 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 Tuesday games, 9-4-1 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against the spread against a team with a winning record.

The line in this one is set at a monstrous 27 and while it seems way excessive, this one is a huge mismatch. Normally I am taking the points all the way in a game like this but the battle on the boards isn’t close and neither is this game.

Pick

North Carolina Tar Heels -27 Evansville Aces

December 7, 2011 by : Posted in College Basketball, Sportsbook No Comments

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