New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

The New England Patriots look to wrap of home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs as they host the Buffalo Bills.  The Patriots are -13 point favorites over the Bills with an over/under point total set at 51.5.

The formula for the New England Patriots is simple: win and they secure home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. New England is coming off of a huge win where they rallied from 17 points down in the second half to beat the Miami Dolphins and put themselves in this position. There isn’t much more we can say about Tom Brady that hasn’t been said as he is a first ballot Hall of Fame QB and this season he has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 4,897 yards with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Stevan Ridley has taken over an increased role in the backfield but he still shares time with Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Brady continues to distribute the ball as Wes Welker has 116 catches for 1,518 and nine touchdowns, Rob Gronkowski has 82 catches and 15 touchdowns, and Aaron Hernandez has 2 catches and six touchdowns. Defensively the Patriots have 38 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, and 19 interceptions with a plus 14 turnover ratio while they allow and NFL worst 412.1 yards per game and 21.4 points per game. Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty each have 82 tackles and Jerrod Mayo has 89 tackles. If New England has a weakness it’s their defense but they have made it work by creating turnovers.

The Buffalo Bills got off to a hot start this season and looked to be heading places when they knocked off the New England Patriots when the two met earlier this season in Buffalo. As the year went on injuries and reality settled in for the Bills and once again we saw a team that simply has a lot of work left to do. Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 62 percent of his passes for 3,525 yards with 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. C.J. Spiller had a huge game last week as he ran for 111 yards against the Broncos. Steve Johnson has 72 catches and six touchdowns and David Nelson has 59 catches and five touchdowns. The Buffalo defense has 24 sacks, 12 fumble recoveries, and 20 interceptions with a plus four turnover ratio and they allow 364.4 yards and 25.7 points per game. Nick Barnett has 119 tackles, George Wilson has 96 tackles, and Jarius Byrd has 95 tackles. Buffalo will have a lot of evaluating to do as they look to next year and beyond as far as personnel are concerned.

New England is 8-3 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against the AFC East, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite. Buffalo is 2-5-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games, and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games overall. The favorite is 13-5 against the spread in the last 18 meetings of these two.

With the Patriots favored by nearly two touchdowns it makes this a tough play but historically if New England has anything to play for at all whether it be week one or the Super Bowl they approach it the same way and look for them to do the same here as they stomp the Bills with revenge in mind.

Pick

New England Patriots -13 Buffalo Bills

December 28, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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