Green Bay Packers vs. Oakland Raiders
The Green Bay Packers continue their quest for perfection as they host the Oakland Raiders. The Packers are -10.5 point favorites over the Raiders with an over/under point total set at 55.
With four games left in the regular season for 2011 the Green Bay Packers are 75 percent of the way done with completing a perfect season. The Packers haven’t really been challenged and they have rarely trailed but no matter what the circumstances they have made it look relatively easy. Aaron Rodgers is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 3,844 yards with 37 touchdowns and five interceptions. Ryan Grant and Brandon Saine have seen the bulk of action in the backfield of late after James Starks carried the load earlier in the year. Greg Jennings has caught 65 passes with nine touchdowns, Jordy Nelson has 48 catches and nine touchdowns, and Jermichael Finley has 42 catches and six touchdowns despite several drops. Defensively the Packers have 26 sacks, eight fumble recoveries, and 23 interceptions and they have a plus 16 turnover ratio while they allow 397.8 yards and 21.8 points per game. Desmond Bishop has 97 tackles, Morgan Burnett has 77 tackles, and Clay Mathews has six sacks. With the Packers defense last in the NFL in yards allowed they have lived off of the turnover.
The Oakland Raiders have lost their lead in the AFC West and are tied with the Denver Broncos. With a 5-5 record in the conference the Raiders aren’t in great shape for a Wild Card tiebreaker so they are going to need to pull it together for a stretch run. Carson Palmer hasn’t looked like he is worth the two first round draft choices Oakland spent to get him but there is plenty of the story left to be written in the final quarter of the season. With Darren McFadden still sidelined the Raiders continue to ride Michael Bush who is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns. Darius Heyward-Bey has 38 catches and two touchdowns, Denarius Moore has 24 catches and four touchdowns, and Chaz Schilens has 20 catches. Defensively Oakland has 33 sacks, six fumble recoveries, and 14 interceptions and have a net zero turnover ratio while they allow 373.3 yards and 25.7 points per game. Tyvon Branch has 88 tackles, Rolando McClain has 65, and Kamerion Wimbly has 48 tackles and seven sacks. The Raiders need to win now and while they have been hit by injuries they still have plenty to work with.
Green Bay is 6-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 12-4 against the spread following a win, and 19-7 in their last 26 games overall. Oakland is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games, 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as underdog, and 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games overall.
The total is set at 55 and with the way the Packers can score points and with the way they have trouble stopping teams it seems reasonable enough but look for Oakland to try and slow the pace, get after Rodgers, and take it up between the tackles to make it stay under the number.