Air Force Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets
Two teams that finished the season with a flurry of wins meet in Washington D.C. as the Toledo Rockets face the Air Force Falcons in the Military Bowl. The Rockets are -3 point favorites over the Falcons with an over/under point total set at 70.
The Toledo Rockets won seven of their last eight games but they will be without Head Coach Tim Beckman who left for the same position at Illinois. Bekman has been replaced by former Offensive Coordinator Matt Campbell who has been with the program for three years. Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin each saw plenty of action at QB with each being effective and having 15 touchdowns and three interceptions apiece. Adonis Thomas averages 6.5 yards per carry and has 11 touchdowns and Morgan Williams averages 5.0 yards per carry and also has 11 touchdowns. Eric Page was almost impossible to cover as he had 112 catches for 1,123 yards and 10 touchdowns and Bernard Reedy had 36 catches and six touchdowns. Defensively Toledo has 13 interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks while they allow 401.1 yards and 30.9 points per game. Desmond Marrow has 78 tackles, Robert Bell has 70 tackles, and Ben Pike has five sacks. Toledo has losses to Ohio State and Boise State but the loss that stings them is one at Syracuse where the officials clearly blew a call on of all things a ball missing the uprights on a kick.
The Air Force Falcons won four of their last five games to finish the season strong and while none of those wins were over bowl teams they still count as wins in the standings. More importantly to Air Force they beat Army and Navy to win the Commander In Chief’s Trophy and the only military academy to go bowling this season. QB Tim Jefferson isn’t known for his passing but he completed 60.9 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions but he ran for 492 yards and 10 touchdowns. Asher Clark is small in stature but big on heart as he averages 7.3 yards per carry and has six touchdowns and Mike DeWitt averages 4.9 yards per carry and has 10 touchdowns. Jonathan Warezka has 28 catches and three touchdowns and Zack Kauth has 27 catches and four touchdowns while averaging over 20 yards per reception. The Falcons have 11 interceptions, 13 fumble recoveries, and 17 sacks and they allow 27.2 points and 390.4 yards per game. Brady Amack has 125 tackles, Jon Davis has 89 tackles and four interceptions, and Alex Means has 71 tackles and 6.0 sacks. Air Force traditionally has one of the better pass defenses in the nation and this year is no different.
Toledo is 6-2-1 against the spread following a win, 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as a favorite, and 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six non-conference games. Air Force is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog, 3-9 against the spread following a win, and 3-7 against the spread following a game where they scored more than 40 points.
The total in this one is set at an aggressive 70 points and even at 10 touchdowns I like this one to go over the number.