San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers

The San Diego Chargers return home from a disappointing Monday Night loss as they host the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers are -5.5 point favorites over the Chargers with an over/under point total of 52.

The San Diego Chargers are still one of the more talented teams in the NFL yet they seem to rarely put it together on the road to get a win in a tight game and even at home they often make one sided wins into close games. The Chargers seem to be mistake prone and they are their own worst enemies at times and rarely catch any kind of break. QB Phillip Rivers is a competitor and has as good of an arm as anyone but he takes a lot of bad risks and this year while he has completed 64.5 percent of his passes he has thrown 11 interceptions and has just seven touchdown passes. Ryan Mathews had been playing well but he left Monday Night’s game with an injury and he was replaced by Curtis Brinkley who looked capable but suffered a concussion and Mike Tolbert missed Monday’s game and he is questionable as well. Anotonio Gates is seeing plenty of double teams but Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd haven’t been able to take advantage of the man coverage they are getting.  Defensively Shaun Phillip’s missed Monday’s game and San Diego can only hope he’s back in the lineup for this one as he’s simply a tough person to replace. Donald Butler, Takeo Spikes, and Eric Weddle are doing their part of defense but the Chargers’ minus five turnover differential has really hurt them this year.

The Green Bay Packers are the last undefeated team in the NFL this season and the defending Super Bowl champions have shown no signs of trouble yet as they look to become back to back champions. Aaron Rodgers has been virtually flawless completing 71.5 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and just three interceptions. With Ryan Grant healthy and paired with James Starks the Packers have more options at running back than they had a year ago. Greg Jennings is now clearly in the elite class of receivers in the NFL and with Jermichael Finley healthy at tight end and the emergence of Jordy Nelson it just opens things up even more. If there is part of the Packers which isn’t as good as last year’s team it has been the defense which is allowing 391 yards a game but with their plus eight turnover differential and high powered offense they have gotten away with it. Desmond Bishop leads the Packers with 65 tackles followed by Morgan Burnett while Clay Mathews has three sacks and Charles Woodson has five interceptions. While it’s tough to argue with Green Bay’s record they will need to improve defensively if they want to repeat.

San Diego is 5-0 against the spread in their last five as a home underdog, 1-4-1 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, and 4-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 4-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 9-2 against the spread following a win, and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight road games. Green Bay has covered the last four times these two have met.

While the Packers are the best in the NFL thus far teams who have holes on defense eventually run into a bad day and this sets up to be one for the Pack. The Chargers are a team who has yet to really put it together and spends most of the time beating themselves but have the talent to play with anyone. Look for San Diego to get the win outright here and the points, well they are just a nice insurance policy.

Pick

San Diego Chargers +5.5 Green Bay Packers

November 4, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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