New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts

One of the premier matchups of recent years has been reduced to a mismatch with a gigantic point spread as the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts.  The Patriots are -20.5 point favorites over the Colts with an over/under point total set at 48.

The New England Patriots have won three games in a row and are two games clear in the AFC East as the hit the home stretch of the season. Tom Brady is having another big year adding to his Hall of Fame numbers as he has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 3,627 yards for 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and he has seven touchdowns while Danny Woodhead is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and he has 16 catches. Wes Welker leads the Pats with 82 catches and he has eight touchdowns, Rob Gronkowski has 60 catches and 11 touchdowns, and Aaron Hernandez has 47 catches and five touchdowns. The New England defense has 25 sacks, four fumble recoveries, and 16 interceptions for a plus six turnover margin while they are the worst defense in the NFL in yards allowed at 409.8 per game while allowing 20.3 points. Kyle Arrington has 60 tackles and seven interceptions, Devin McCourty has 59 tackles, and Andre Carter has nine sacks.   The Patriots appear to be gearing up for another playoff run but if they are going to go all the way they are going to need to see some improvement on defense.

The Indianapolis Colts are the only team in the NFL to not win a game this season and they have just five more chances to get one. The Colts season never got started as Peyton manning hasn’t taken a snap and while football is the ultimate team game without Manning Indy hasn’t been much. Curtis Painter has completed 54.3 percent of his passes for 1,541 yards with six touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Colts running game is having a rough year as well though Donald Brown is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns while Joseph Addai is averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Reggie Wayne is having a subpar year with 47 catches and two touchdowns, Pierre Garcon has 46 catches and four touchdowns, and Austin Collie has 31 catches. The Colts defense has 18 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, and five interceptions and they have a minus 11 turnover differential while they are allowing 389.4 yards and 29.7 points per game. Pat Angerer has 112 tackles, Antoine Bethea has 93 tackles, and Kavell Conner has 80 tackles. The Colts have gone from penthouse to outhouse and they have taken this rivalry with them.

New England is 5-0 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 3-13 against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 or more, and 4-1 against the spread against AFC teams. Indianapolis is 1-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 8-3 against the spread as a road underdog of 10.5 or more points, and 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games overall. Indianapolis is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings of these two and the underdog is 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings.

If football is the ultimate team game then how can losing one player kill a team so badly? At some point Jim Caldwell needs to be held accountable and he should be on his way out the door for the product he has put on the field this year. In the meantime the Pats aren’t known as a team that goes easy on an opponent when they are down so look for Brady to put up career numbers here in a romp.

Pick

New England Patriots -20.5 Indianapolis Colts

November 29, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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