Mississippi Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Two struggling teams in the SEC meet in Lexington as the Kentucky Wildcats host the Ole Miss Rebels.  The Rebels are -1 point favorites over the Wildcats.

It’s year two for Joker Phillips as Head Coach of the Kentucky Wildcats and at this point Kentucky’s string of going to bowl games looks to be in danger of ending barring a miracle. While it’s tough to pin it on Phillips, UK  just lost too much talent from last year’s team to replace in one season. While Morgan Newton is athletic and a threat to run, his passing ability is less than questionable and at 48 percent completion and with just one more touchdown than interception, it just doesn’t get it done in the SEC. Maxwell Smith has moved in to replace Newton as Newton has an ankle injury but while his completion percentage is outstanding, he had just 174 passing yards on 26 completions and no touchdowns. Coshik Williams and Jonathan George split carries right down the middle last game and Matt Roark was on the receiving end of 13 passes. The Kentucky defense is solid but it isn’t what we have seen in recent years under former coach Rich Brooks though Danny Trevathan looks to be a star.

It’s another disappointing year for the Mississippi Rebels and Head Coach Houston Nutt and as much excitement that surrounded the program just a few years ago, there is just as much concern for it now. Nutt’s welcome has to be wearing thin and what isn’t helping is Ole Miss seems to just not be able to hold leads or play competitively in the second half which is usually a sign of poor conditioning. Randall Mackey is an athlete at QB but he seems to always been on the run throwing from awkward positioning and it isn’t helping his numbers or his performance. Jeff Scott has been the primary offensive weapon and the speedster is always threat each time he touches the ball and why Ole Miss tries to get him the ball any way possible. Brandon Bolden has been one of the better backs in the SEC and in the nation but he’s been used sparingly this season until last week when he had two touchdowns, some of which was the result of the opposition not keying on his as part of the defensive game plan. Donte Moncrief and Ja-Mes Logan are talented wideouts but with Mackey’s numbers their numbers are modest as well. The Mississippi defense has simply folded in the second half of games and in the SEC where even the slightest let down will always come at a high cost, it has led to a series of losses for Ole Miss.

Kentucky is 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games overall, 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as an underdog, and 1-4 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Ole Miss is 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games overall, 1-5 against the spread in their last five SEC games, and 0-6 against the spread against a team with a losing record. The favorite has covered four of the last five meetings of these two.

I have packed it in on the Kentucky Wildcats and after cashing on them in past seasons, they have become dead money and ineffective. While Kentucky has battled for years to become more than a basketball school, that is what it is back to being. While Ole Miss hasn’t played well in second halves, they should do enough in the first half here.

Pick

Mississippi Rebels -1 Kentucky Wildcats

November 2, 2011 by : Posted in College Football, Sportsbook No Comments

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