Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins

The Kansas City Chiefs look to continue their winning streak and the Miami Dolphins look to end their losing streak as they meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.  The Chiefs are -5 point favorites over the Dolphins with an over/under point total set at 39.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t have started the season any worse getting blown out in their first two games of the year and then losing a close one in their third but instead of quitting Todd Haley’s team has rallied and are now tied for the lead in the AFC West. The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been anything special but they have done enough to get the job done though they are 25th in average points per game at 18.3. Matt Cassel has been unspectacular completing 62.9 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. With Jamaal Charles gone for the year the Chiefs looked for and found answers at running back in Jackie Battle who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and Dexter McCluster providing the threat of a big play every time he is on the field. Dwayne Bowe is still attracting all of the attention at receiver but with first round draft choice Jonathan Baldwin finally healthy he provides another option for Cassel and with his solid size and hands it give KC a formidable tandem. The Kansas City defense has stiffened and Derrick Johnson leads the team with 57 tackles while Tamba Hali is blowing up game plans and he has six sacks and Brandon Flowers is emerging as a top cover corner and has four interceptions of the Chiefs’ 13 interceptions as a team.

The season is officially an outright disaster for the Miami Dolphins as the only redemption it looks like ti will bring is that they will be drafting at or near the top of a draft which is the deepest at QB since perhaps 1983. With Chad Henne out at QB it has been Matt Moore’s opportunity to show he has NFL talent but thus far he is missing the most important thing, the ability to lead his team to a win. Reggie Bush showed his big play ability in spots thus far and rookie Daniel Thomas appears to be a building block for the future but this is a team missing a lot of pieces. Brandon Marshall can be one of the game’s best on his best days and Davone Bess seems to come up with the catches on third down. The defense has kept the Dolphins in some games but there is only so much they can do on most days. Yeremiah Bell is Miami’s leading tackler followed by Karlos Dansby but the big problem us Miami is minus eight in turnover differential, a number they need to turn around if they are going to have any chance of getting into the win column.

Kansas City is 4-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 3-10-1 against the spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite, and 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall. Miami is 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games overall, 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games on the road, and 0-5 against the spread following a cover. The favorite is 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six meetings of these two.

I just don’t see a lot of points here and the under looks to be the play.  Take the under 39.5 here.


Under 39.5

November 2, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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