Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Green Bay Packers look to move a game closer to perfection as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Packers are -14.5 point favorites over the Buccaneers with an over/under point total set at 49.

The Green Bay Packers are running like a well-oiled machine and undefeated through nine games talk is already turning towards running the table. QB Aaron Rodgers is putting up MVP type numbers completing 72.9 percent of his passes for 2,869 yards with 28 touchdowns and just three interceptions. James Starks is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and Ryan Grant is averaging 3.6 yards per attempt in a reduced role. Greg Jennings is one of the best in the NFL with 51 catches and seven touchdowns, Jordy Nelson has 34 catches and seven TD’s, and Jermichael Finley has 33 catches and five touchdowns. The Green Bay defense allows 384.8 yards per game and 20.7 points and they have 22 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, and 17 interceptions. Desmond Bishop has 84 tackles and five sacks, Clay Mathews has five sacks, and Charles Woodson has five interceptions. It’s tough to imagine but this year’s version of the Green Bay Packers is better than the team that won the Super Bowl last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to be moving in reverse as they have lost their last three games and haven’t been overly competitive in any of them. Josh Freeman looked to be moving towards being one of the better QB’s in the NFL but he has been regressing of late and for the season he has completed 61.2 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. LeGarrette Blount’s production has slowed as well as he’s averaging 4.3 yards per attempt and has three touchdowns. Mike Williams has 39 catches for the Bucs and Kellen Winslow Jr. has 38 but they have just three touchdowns between them. The Buccaneers’ defense has been struggling allowing 401.2 yards per game and allowing 25.9 points but they have 13 sacks, seven fumble recoveries, and eight interceptions for a minus two turnover differential. Sean Jones has 53 tackles and Ronde barber and Geno Hayes have 45 each. It was a very promising looking season for the Bucs but it is quickly getting away from them.

Green Bay is 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing record, 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against NFC teams, and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite. Tampa Bay is 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 road games, 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog, and 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall. The home team has covered in four of the last five meetings of these two.

With Green Bay laying more than 14 points that is a lot to be laying in an NFL game. I would say at two touchdowns it’s still a strong play but at more than that, it’s just a play on the Pack.

Pick

Green Bay Packers -14.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

November 17, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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