Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Green Bay Packers take on their NFC North rivals, the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.  The Packers are -13.5 point favorites over the Vikings with an over/under point total set at 51.5.

There is only one undefeated team left in the NFL this season and it’s Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay Packers. The Packers have been dominating this season as they have won convincingly each time out and while the defense seems to be the weak link, no one has been able to outscore their offense. Aaron Rodgers has completed 72.5 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions being sacked 20 times but showing his mobility in key spots. James Starks is the Packers’ number one running back averaging 4.6 yards per carry but Ryan Grant still sees weekly action averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Greg Jennings is among the NFL’s elite receivers catching 48 passes for six touchdowns while Jordy Nelson has 30 catches and five touchdowns and Jermichael Finley has 29 catches and five touchdowns. The Green Bay defense has 19 sacks, six fumble recoveries, and 16 interceptions and they are plus 11 in turnover differential. Desmond Bishop has 76 tackles, Morgan Burnett has 52, and Charles Woodson has five interceptions. Last year it was the second half of the season when the defense came around and Green Bay is hoping they come around again as they give up a ton of yards and have been bailed out by the turnover.

This season has been a struggle for Leslie Frazier and the Minnesota Vikings but over recent weeks their play has improved and with it brings new hope for the future. Many were critical of the Vikings trading up in the NFL draft to take QB Christian Ponder but thus far Minnesota are looking like the smart ones as Ponder has been impressive and looks like a seasoned veteran, not like a rookie with just a few starts. Adrian Peterson is still one of the best running backs in the game and with Ponder at QB the running lanes are starting to open up again as he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and he has nine touchdowns. Percy Harvin can get it done no matter how he gets the ball catching 31 passes and rushing the ball another 20 times. Michael Jenkins and Visanthe Shiancoe will also benefit from Ponder’s presence as will rokkie Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings defense has 24 sacks, nine fumble recoveries, and six interceptions as they have a plus four turnover differential. Chad Greenway has 65 tackles, Husain Abdullah has 46, and Jared Allen has 12.5 sacks. The Vikings aren’t as bad as their record indicates and they could be one of the more improved teams over the second half of the year.

Green Bay is 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 home games, 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite, and 5-0 against the spread in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. Minnesota is 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games against the NFC, 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 road games, and 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games against the NFC North. Minnesota has covered in eight of their last 11 games in Green Bay.

The total which has been set at 51.5, a number which appears to be far too low. The Green Bay offense has been putting up huge numbers and Adrian Peterson against a soft Packers defense should mean a nice day for him as well as this one should go over the total.


Over 51.5

November 11, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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