Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans
The Atlanta Falcons and the Tennessee Titans both look to improve their position in the playoff races as they meet on Sunday in Atlanta. The Falcons are -6.5 point favorites over the Titans with an over/under point total set at 44.5.
Atlanta Falcon’s Head Coach Mike Smith has come under fire this week for his decision to go for it on fourth down deep in his own territory in overtime against the New Orleans Saints, a move that eventually cost the Falcons the game and could have a bigger effect down the road. It was a rare loss at home Sunday for QB Matt Ryan and thus far this season he has completed 60.1 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while being sacked 10 times. Michael Turner has rushed for 788 yards and seven touchdowns but the few inches he was unable to gain on Sunday may have been the biggest of the season thus far. Roddy White has 47 catches and three touchdowns while Tony Gonzalez has 45 catches and six touchdowns. The Falcons’ defense allows 344.1 yards and 21.8 points per game and they have 15 sacks, eight fumble recoveries, and 10 interceptions. Curtis Lofton has 85 tackles, Sean Weatherspoon has 76, and Thomas DeCoud has three interceptions. The Falcons have to be deflated after last week’s loss but the expectation is to rebound in a hurry.
The Tennessee Titans are quietly going about their business this season and while they trail the Texans in the AFC South, a season ending injury to Texans’ QB Matt Schaub may open the door for the Titans to make a move. QB Matt Hasselbeck is showing he still has something left as he has completed 61.9 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions while taking just 12 sacks. Chris Johnson hasn’t looked like himself in the backfield gaining 3.4 yards per carry and scoring just two touchdowns. Nate Washington has caught 39 passes and Damien Williams has 23 catches and four touchdowns. The Titans’ defense is allowing 349.4 yards and 19.1 points per game and they have 19 sacks, five fumble recoveries, and nine interceptions. Jason McCourty has 74 tackles, Jordan Babineaux has 61, and Barrett Ruud has 55. The Titans appear to have caught a break and it will be interesting to see how it plays out for them going forward in the AFC South race.
The Atlanta Falcons are 8-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, 18-5 against the spread following a straight up loss, and 10-21-1 against the spread in their last 32 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Tennessee Titans are 6-13 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 1-6 against the spread following a win, and 0-5 against the spread following a cover.
While desperation, anger, and will are always going to factor in somewhat the bulk of the time it comes down to pure numbers and stats and really which team blocks and tackles the best. This game is just a closer matchup than the spread is giving it credit for and taking the points is the best option.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 Atlanta Falcons