San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

The San Diego Chargers and the Miami Dolphins meet up for a week four battle of AFC teams.  The Chargers are -7.5 favorites over the Dolphins with an over/under point total set at 46.5.

The San Diego Chargers are tied atop the AFC West and as they are known as slow starters it’s a welcome relief for them to have a winning record at this point. The Chargers are fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game as Phillip Rovers has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 979 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions. Mike Tolbert has been the Chargers leading receiver with 20 catches followed by Vincent Jackson with 17 and Antonio Gates is already hobbled by injuries, something that has plagued him over recent years. Ryan Mathews is averaging 4.6 yards per carry as he has 207 yards and three touchdowns. The San Diego defense has allowed 943 yards total through three games but they haven’t been able to create turnovers as they have just one fumble recovery and two interceptions and are woefully behind in turnover margin at minus six. Takeo Spikes leads the Chargers in tackles with 24 followed by Donald Butler 22 and Eric Weddle with 19. With a minus six turnover ratio San Diego’s 2-1 record is nothing short of miraculous.

It’s been a disappointing 0-3 start for the Miami Dolphins and as the losses begin to pile up the heat gets higher on Head Coach Tony Sporano who doesn’t seem to have the answers. The Miami Offense is 27th in points averaging just 17.7 points per game. QB Chad Henne isn’t putting up the numbers the Dolphins had hoped as he’s completed 56.5 percent of his passes for 841 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions and he’s been sacked 11 times. Daniel Thomas appears to be all that was advertised as he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry while Reggie Bush is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. Brandon Marshall is healthy once again and he has 17 catches for 261 yards and a touchdown and Devone Bess has 12 catches. Once again the Dolphins defense is spending a lot of time on the field with two interceptions and no fumble recoveries for a minus three turnover ratio. Yeremiah Bell leads the Dolphins with 24 tackles, Reshad Jones has 22, and Sean Smith has 15. If Miami doesn’t turn things around in a hurry they will be looking at a new coach and likely a top five pick in the NFL draft.

San Diego is 2-6-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record, 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games as a favorite, and 23-7 in their last 30 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Miami is 15-5 -1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a road underdog, 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, and 1-5 in their last six week four games. Miami has covered in five of their last six games against San Diego and 4 of their last five in San Diego.

What we have here is a far superior team in San Diego who is just a lousy cover team and it comes from their negative turnover differential. Miami is terrible this year and a cross country road game against a team with a big defensive front is just the place for it to all fall apart.

Pick

San Diego Chargers -7.5 Miami Dolphins

October 2, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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