Mississippi Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers look to bounce back from an outright beat down last week as they host the Ole Miss Rebels in SEC College Football action on Saturday. The Tigers are -9.5 favorites over the Rebels with an over/under point total set at 57.
It’s been an up and down season for the Auburn Tigers and while Gene Chizik’s team had a nice up a few weeks back when they beat South Carolina, last week’s loss to LSU was the low. Last week the Tigers went with Dustin Mosely to make his first start at QB and while his overall numbers weren’t horrible, the heat was on and we never really got a chance to see what he could do as he was under big pressure all game long. Michael Dyer has been Auburn’s best player this season as he’s rushed for 812 yards and eight touchdowns. Onterio McCalebb is a dual threat as he’s rushed for 387 yards and has a team high 22 receptions. Emory Blake has 19 catches, Travon Reed has 15, and tight end Phil Lutzenkirchen has 14 with three touchdowns. Auburn’s big problems have been on the defensive side of the ball where they have 11 interceptions, 13 sacks, and six fumble recoveries but this simply isn’t the same defense that led the Tigers to a National Championship a year ago. Neiko Thorpe has 64 tackles, Daren Bates has 58, and Demetruce McNeal has 50 but this unit simply has trouble stopping people. While Auburn isn’t a bad team, they have looked very bad on occasion and one of those occasions was last week.
The Mississippi Rebels are struggling this year and with hopes of a bowl game vanishing, the seat has to be warming up on Head Coach Houston Nutt. Ole Miss looked to have Arkansas in trouble last week but a failure to close the deal in the second half and it was the fifth loss of the season. QB Randall Mackey has completed just 51.9 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Jeff Scott is basically a one man offensive show rushing for 394 yards and six touchdowns and catching 12 passes as Brandon Bolden has all but disappeared from the offense. Ja-Mes Logan has 17 catches and Donte Moncrief has 16 with four going for touchdowns but the offense has been inconsistent. Defensively Ole Miss has eight interceptions, 11 sacks, and four fumble recoveries but overall they spend a lot of time on the field. Mike Marry has 60 tackles, Damien Jackson has 50 and Charles Sawyer has four of the interceptions. Ole Miss does have some talented players but as a team they have not put it together against the better teams.
Auburn is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 SEC games, 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 home games, and 2-10 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Ole Miss is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 as a road underdog, 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games overall, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five SEC games.
I see a track meet here with both teams putting up good numbers. I’m going with the over 57 in this one.