Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

The Minnesota Vikings look to jump start their season as they host their NFC North rivals, the undefeated and defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.  The Packers are -9.5 favorites over the Vikings with an over/under point total set at 47.5.

The Minnesota Vikings knew they were in for a bit of a rebuilding process this season but it would have been tough for Head Coach Leslie Frazier to be prepared for much of what he has seen from his team on the field this season. Whether they like to admit it or not there is a QB controversy brewing in Minnesota as the Vikings looked ineffective Monday Night with Donovan McNabb at QB and moved the ball somewhat better when rookie first round draft choice Christian Ponder entered the game. While Ponder is the future the question is whether or not the future begins this Sunday at home against the Pack; Leslie Frazier will make his decision public on Wednesday. Regardless of who is playing QB Adrian Peterson is still one of the top running backs in the game but with defenses not having to respect the pass as much his yards numbers are down by his standards with 537 but he has found the endzone seven times. Percy Harvin is a game breaker and can score from anywhere but he hasn’t caught a TD pass yet this season as he has 25 catches, Michael Jenkins has 24, and Kyle Rudolph is moving into the offense more as well though Visante Schiancoe has 16 catches. While the Vikings offense has struggled, the defense been as good as can be expected with the amount of time they are on the field allowing 353 yards per game and 24.2 points while accumulating 17 sacks, six fumble recoveries, and six interceptions.

The Green Bay Packers are the last undefeated team in the NFL and they look to be on track to make a return trip to the playoffs and the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers is having another huge year with 2,031 yards passing with 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions. It’s running back by committee in Green Bay as James Starks and Ryan Grant share time with Starks averaging 4.3 yards per carry and Grant averaging 4.2. Greg Jennings leads the Packers with 35 catches with four of them going for touchdowns, Jermichael Finley has 23 catches and three scores, and Jordy Nelson has 20 catches and four touchdowns. The Green Bay defense plays with a lead often so it only makes sense they give up yards late as teams struggle to get back into games and the Packers are just 23rd in the NFL in Yards allowed at 383.7 yards per game but just 19 points while sacking the opposing QB’s 15 times, recovering five fumbles, and snatching 11 interceptions. Desmond Bishop has a remarkable 57 tackles, Morgan Burnett has 47, and A.J. Hawk has 28.

Minnesota is 3-9-1 in their last 13 games against NFC teams, 1-7-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against NFC teams, 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games, and 11-3-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record. The road team has covered 13 of the last 18 meetings of these two.

The total is set at 47 and that number looks to be just too high in this one.  I’m going with the under 47.5.

Pick

Under 47.5

October 18, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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