LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators

The number one ranked LSU Tigers host the Florida Gators in an SEC college football match up in Death Valley.  The Tigers are -12 point favorites over the Gators with an over/under point total set at 42.5.

While the LSU Tigers made news off the field as the season was ready to begin, Les Miles’ team has made news on the field with their all-around strong play. With Jordan Jefferson suspended to start the season Jarrett Lee has been the starting QB and even with Jefferson back in the fold it is still Lee’s job. Lee has completed 59.3 percent of his passes for 793 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. Spencer Ware and Michael Ford have been sharing time in the backfield with Ware averaging 4.0 yards per carry for 323 yards and three touchdowns while Ford averages 5.3 yards per carry for 322 yards and six touchdowns. Odell Beckham leads LSU with 20 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns and Rueben Randle has 19 catches for 319 yards with three touchdowns. The Tigers defense has six interceptions, six fumble recoveries, and 12 sacks and have just been a handful for the opposition. Tyrann Mathieu leads LSU with 35 tackles and Tharold Simon, Brandon Taylor, and Eric Reid all have 27 tackles. LSU looks well rounded and if they can stay focused they could be undefeated a month from now when they face off with Alabama.

The Florida Gators got off to a hot start against a soft schedule but Will Muschamp’s team was faced with a heavy dose of reality last Saturday when they were blasted at home by Alabama. Tougher than losing the game UF lost starting QB John Brantley who won’t be available for this game and will be replaced by freshman Jeff Driskel. Driskel was highly touted but looked lost against the Tide going seven for 16 for 73 yards and two interceptions. Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps are two of the fastest players in the college game and thus far Rainey has 415 yards rushing and two touchdowns and 246 yards receiving and another two scores while Demps has 340 yards rushing and four touchdowns and 72 yards receiving. Andre Dubose had a big catch against Bama but he has just seven catches for the year for 154 yards and Deonte Thompson has nine catches for 136 yards. The Gators defense has four interceptions, three fumble recoveries, and none sacks. Jon Bostic leads Florida in tackles with 29 while Jelani Jenkins has 26 and Matt Elam has 22. The big questions here for Florida is can they bounce back and how effective can Driskel be running the offense.

LSU is 8-17 against the spread in their last 25 home games, 8-20 in their last 28 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more, and 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning record. Florida is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games, 12-4 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, and 2-6-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. Florida has covered six in a row at LSU and the road team has covered eight of the last 10 in this series.

Normally taking the points here would be easy but with Driskel in at QB against this defense, which could have been too much for the Gators even with Brantley in, looks like bad news for Florida. The choice here is to lay the points with LSU.

Pick

LSU Tigers -12 Florida Gators

October 6, 2011 by : Posted in College Football, Sportsbook No Comments

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