Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Two playoff teams from a season ago who are struggling this year meet in Indianapolis as the Indianapolis Colts host the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Colts are -1 point favorites over the Chiefs with an over/under point total set at 38.

Many thought before this season that no player was more valuable to his team than Peyton Manning and with the Indianapolis Colts, a perennial playoff team, winless through four games it looks like they may be right. The Colts have struggled through four games and while they have improved in their last two games they still haven’t erased the zero from the win column. Originally Indy went with Kerry Collins at QB but he went down with an injury and Curtis Painter got the start in their Monday Night loss in Tampa Bay. Thus far Painter has completed 43.9 percent of his passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns without an interception but he has been sacked five times. Joseph Addai is back and healthy averaging 4.6 yards per carry for 230 yards and a touchdown. Reggie Wayne leads the colts in receptions with 18 followed by Pierre Garcon with 14 and Dallas Clark with 13. The Indianapolis defense has seven sacks, seven fumble recoveries, and three interceptions as they allow 390.3 yards per game. Pat Angerer has 50 tackles, Kavell Conner has 43 tackles, and Antoine Bethea has 27 tackles to lead a Colts D that has 121 more tackles than their opponents, just an indication of how much time they spend on the field. The Colts may not be the worst team in the NFL but they are one of just three teams yet to get a win.

The Kansas City Chiefs got their first win of the season last week as they went into Minnesota and beat the Vikings. Matt Cassel has put together a solid completion percentage of 64.9 but it hasn’t translated into good all-around numbers as he has just 688 yards and four touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions and has been sacked eight times. With Jamaal Charles gone for the season Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster have handled the duties in the backfield with Jones averaging just 2.8 yards per carry for 111 yards and McCluster averaging 5.9 yards per carry for 164 yards. McCluster also leads the Chiefs in receptions with 17 but they have gone for just 52 yards while Dwayne Bowe has 16 catches for 292 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively K.C. allows 372.8 yards per game and they have five sacks, three fumble recoveries, and five interceptions. Jovan Belcher has 26 tackles, Tamba Hali has 25, and Derrick Johnson has 23 but the Kansas City defense was crippled by the loss of Eric Berry who went down for the season. With the poor offensive numbers, this year may be a step back for the Chiefs who may need to head in that direction before they move forward.

Indianapolis is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight home games, 104 against the spread in their last five against the AFC, and 0-7 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Kansas City is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games against AFC teams, 2-6 against the spread following a win, and 1-5 against the spread in their last six week five games. Kansas City is 2-8 against the spread in the last 10 meetings of these two.

This doesn’t set up to be the game many had thought it would be when they saw on the schedule that two playoff teams from last year were meeting as it is one of the less attractive games of the day. While Kansas City was able to play hard against Minnesota and get the win, this one looks like a coin flip and in those I give the edge to the home team who should be pretty hungry.

Pick

Indianapolis Colts -1 Kansas City Chiefs

October 6, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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