Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

Two resurgent organizations face off in the Motor City as the Detroit Lions host the San Francisco 49ers.  The Lions are -4.5 favorites over the Lions with an over/under point total set at 47.

It was just a few years ago that the Detroit Lions went winless and lost every game on the schedule, fast forward to this season and after five games the Lions are undefeated. QB Matthew Stafford has managed to stay healthy thus far and he is putting together some numbers completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1436 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions while being sacked just six times. Because of defenses respecting the pass it has opened running lanes for Jahvid Best who is averaging 4.9 yards per carry for 353 yards and two touchdowns. Calvin Johnson has emerged as the best receiver in the game and he has 29 catches for 451 yards and nine touchdowns and Brandon Pettigrew is next on the Lions with 26 catches. Defensively Detroit allows 339.2 yards per game with 12 sacks, five fumble recoveries, and seven interceptions. DeAndre Levy is the Lions leading tackler with 36, Stephen Tulloch has 32, and Chris Houston has 26.

As good as the Lions’ story is, the San Francisco 49ers are one of the biggest surprises thus far this season losing just one game. QB Alex Smith hasn’t done anything spectacular but he hasn’t made big mistakes to cost the team as he has completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 965 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception. Frank Gore continues to be a force in the backfield rushing for 400 tough yards and three touchdowns and this season Kendall Hunter has added another dimension spelling Gore and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Tight end Vernon Davis has become a leader with 22 catches and three touchdowns while Josh Morgan and Michael Crabtree seem to get better each week. The Niners defense is allowing just 340.8 yards per game including a stout 76.4 yards rushing, one of the best in the NFL. The San Francisco defense has 12 sacks, six fumble recoveries, and eight interceptions. NaVorro Bowman has 42 tackles, Patrick Willis 40, and Dashon Goldson has 22.

Detroit is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite, 14-4-3 against the spread in their last 21 games against NFC teams, and 18-6-2 against the spread in their last 26 games overall. San Francisco is 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games against NFC teams, and 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record. San Francisco is 4-1-2 against the spread in the last six meetings of these two.

The under is 7-0 in the last seven times these two have met and this match up makes for a low scoring game and a tight one. The Lions have been slow starters and while they will be able to move the ball, don’t expect it to happen in chunks and quickly. This should be a close on and getting better than a field goal seems to be solid value especially with the Lions operating on a short week and in what should be a physical game.

Pick

San Francisco 49ers +4.5 Detroit Lions

October 12, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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