Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers

It’s Tigers against Tigers as the LSU Tigers host the Auburn Tigers in SEC Football action on Saturday at Death Valley.  LSU is -20.5 point favorites over Auburn with an over/under point total set at 55.

The LSU Tigers are one of the most talented teams in the nation and as it is shaping up Les Miles teams’ season will come down to a November 5th meeting with the Alabama Crimson Tide which should decide the SEC West Champion. Jarrett Lee has been the starting QB this season and it’s tough to find fault with anything he’s done with 11 touchdowns and just one interception and most importantly an undefeated record but with Jordan Jefferson eligible and back on the roster, it’s tough to believe that the original starter won’t start to see even more time each week. Spencer Ware carries the load in the backfield and the converted high school QB has 512 yards and six touchdowns while Michael Ford is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has six touchdowns as well. Ruben Randle has developed into a palyer that matches his hype when he was recruited as he has five touchdowns and looks NFL Ready and Odell Beckham has 24 catches. The LSU defense has been extremely tough and while they haven’t been as overwhelmingly dominant as a few of the other teams like Alabama, they have been at least near the top and have playmakers at every position. Tyrann Mathieu is getting Heisman consideration as he has 42 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two interceptions, and three fumble recoveries.

No one expected the Auburn Tigers to repeat as National Champions this season but even fewer expected Auburn to experience as much success as they have had thus far this season. Barrett Trotter has been doing a nice job at QB but there has been a movement of late to give more playing time to Kiehl Frazier who is more of a dial threat QB and gives the offense more options in their play calling though he has yet to throw a touchdown pass this year. Michael Dyer is a superstar in the backfield as he’s less than 250 yards shy of 1,000 with eight touchdowns and he’s a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball. Emory Blake and Onterrio McCalebb lead the team in receptions with Blake averaging 17.5 yards per catch. This year’s Auburn team has simply had a tough time stopping their opponents but they are coming off of their best effort of the season holding Florida to just six points. Neiko Thorpe has 50 tackles and two interceptions while Daren Bates has 49 tackles.

LSU is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite, 5-12 against the spread in their last 17 games following a cover, and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite. Auburn is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of 10.5 or more points, 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record, and 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road underdog. The home team is 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings of these two.

While LSU is rolling this is just a few too many points to be laying as LSU while dominating games isn’t necessarily a team who blows people out and when they do it’s by shutting down the opposition’s offense. While I see LSU slowing down Auburn’s offense and carving up their defense, I see Auburn putting at least enough points on the board to get the cover with this generous number.

Pick

Auburn Tigers +20.5 LSU Tigers

October 17, 2011 by : Posted in College Football, Sportsbook No Comments

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