St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
The St. Louis Cardinals look to keep their slim post season hopes alive as they host the New York Mets for game one of their series. The Cardinals are -185 favorites over the Mets with an over/under run total set at 8.5.
The St. Louis Cardinals are still hanging to their playoff hopes by a thread but they haven’t even come close to giving up. The Cardinals have won their last two games, are 8-2 in their last 10, and trail the Braves by four games in N.L. Wildcard race. As a team St. Louis is hitting .272 led by Albert Pujols at .299, Lance Berkman at .299, and Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday both at .295. As a team the Cardinals pitching staff has a combined ERA of 3.81 with the starters at 3.88 and the bullpen at 3.66. For game one against the Mets St. Louis starts Edwin Jackson who was acquired for the stretch drive. Since being brought to the Cardinals Jackson has allowed 75 hits and 24 earned runs while striking out 45 over 65 innings of work.
The New York Mets are battling it out for third place in the National League East and while they are 25.5 games out of the division lead, at least they are playing for something. The Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 games, 42-36 on the road this season, and are currently tied with the Nationals in the standings. As a team New York is hitting .265 led by Jose Reyes at .331, Angel Pagan at .261, and Lucas Duda at .292. As a team the Mets pitching staff has a combined ERA of 4.15 with the starters at 4.11 and the bullpen at 4.22. For game one against the Cards New York starts Mike Pelfrey who has lost his last two decisions. For the season Pelfrey has allowed 201 hits and 92 earned runs while striking out 102 in 184.2 innings of work.
St. Louis is 5-0 in their last five home games, 10-2 in their last 12 games overall, and 9-2 in their last 11 games against a right handed starter. New York is 2-7 in their last nine games overall, 4-12 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, and 3-13 in Pelfrey’s alst 16 starts against a team with a winning record. New York is 1-5 in their last six games in St. Louis.
We have a pair of good but not great pitchers here and we should see in an average game between these two nine or more runs on most occaisions and I think we see more than the total here. Take the 8.5 here.