Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texas

The Miami Dolphins look to bounce back from their week one loss as they host the Houston Texans on Sunday.  The Texans are -3 point favorites over the Dolphins with an over/under point total set at 46.

The Miami Dolphins had reasonably high optimism heading into this season with many of their players from last season returning and several upgrades at key spots but it wasn’t enough as they were run circles around on Monday Night Football by the New England Patriots. Despite failing inside the one yard line twice Chad Henne looked improved at QB as he threw for 416 yards and two touchdowns and his one interception coming on the final play of the game as he tried to force one in as time was expiring. Brandon Marshall was back and healthy catching seven passes for 139 yards while Davone Bess had five catches for 92 yards and Anthony Fasano caught five balls for 82 yards. With Daniel Thomas on the shelf Reggie Bush got almost all of the carries rushing for 38 yards and catching nine passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins defense was supposed to be the stronger unit on the team but they were torched by Tom Brady who threw for 517 yards and they allowed another 106 yards on the ground. Cameron Wake had a sack and Reshad Jones led the team in tackles with eight while Karlos Dansby and Yeremiah Bell had five tackles each. Miami has a short week to recover and a lot of pride that needs healing but they get another chance at home and they aren’t facing Tom Brady this week.

The Houston Texans are the team that before every season we hear that this is the year they finally make the playoffs but that season has never come. In week one the Texans drew the Indianapolis Colts and blew them out of the building but what we still don’t know is how much of it is the Texans being vastly improved and much of it was the Colts not having Peyton Manning and being totally out of synch. Matt Schaub threw for 220 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions with Andre Johnson catching seven of the passes for 95 yards and the touchdown but the reality of it was that the Texans had such a big lead early they didn’t need to throw much after midway through the second quarter. With Arian Foster on the sideline Ben Tate ran for 116 yards and a touchdown and Derrick Ward had 39 yards and a touchdown. Defensively the Texans harassed the Colts and kept them out of it as Mario Williams had two sacks and Antonio Williams had one while rookie J.J. Watt had five tackles to lead the team. We will find out a lot more about the Houston Texans as they go on the road.

The Miami Dolphins are 5-2 against the spread following a straight up loss, 1-4 against the spread in their last five against the AFC, and 17-46-1 against the spread in their last 64 home games. The Houston Texans are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games overall, 1-5 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record, and 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games. The road team has covered four of the last five meetings of these two.

The underdog has ruled this series going 5-0 against the number but in this case we have an underdog who probably should be an underdog at all as the public perception will be skewed after watching Tom Brady scorch them. Houston’s numbers also looked inflated going the other way as the Colts simply had no offense and handed the Texans a huge lead with their own blunders. We are getting real value here on Miami who wins this one outright.

Pick

Miami Dolphins +3 Houston Texans

September 16, 2011 by : Posted in NFL, Sportsbook No Comments

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