Florida Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Florida Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds meet for game one of their series at Sun Life Stadium. The Reds are -145 favorites over the Marlins with an over/under run total set at 7.5.
The Marlins are playing out the season and their final home games at Sun Life as they will be moving into a new stadium next season and it can’t come soon enough for them as their performance at home has been miserable this season. The Marlins have lost five games in a row, are 2-8 in their last 10 games, and 24-39 at home this season. As a team Florida is hitting .245 led by Emilio Bonifacio at .282, Omar Infante at .276, and Gaby Sanchez at .265. As a team the Marlins pitching staff has a combined ERA of 4.12 with the starters at 4.52 and the bullpen at 3.40. For game one against the Reds Florida starts Ricky Nolasco who has lost two of his last three starts. For the season Nolasco has allowed 191 hits and 78 earned runs while striking out 119 in 165 innings of work.
The Cincinnati Reds are a talented team that just never got their footing this season and the end result is a team playing for next year as they finish out this year. The Reds are 6-4 in their last 10 games, 28-35 on the road this season, and 13.5 games back in the National League Central. As a team Cincinnati is hitting .258 led by Joey Votto at .322, Brandon Phillips at .293, and Jay Bruce at .269. As a team the Reds pitching staff has a combined ERA of 4.09 with the starters at 4.38 and the bullpen at 3.53. For game one against the Marlins Cincinnati starts Johnny Cueto who has won three of his last four starts. For the season Cueto has allowed 92 hits and 27 earned runs while striking out 83 in 128.1 innings of work.
Florida is 15-37 in their last 52 home games, 5-17 in their last 22 games overall, and 2-10 in Nolasco’s last 12 home starts. Cincinnati is 8-22 in their last 30 games following a win, 1-6 in their last seven against the N.L. East, and 6-2 in Cueto’s last eight starts.
While we may not see a ton of hitting, this total is set agressively low, low enough that I’ll take a shot with the over.