Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals play out their high scoring series at Fenway Park on Thursday. The Red Sox are -300 favorites over the Royals with an over/under run total set at 9.
The Boston Red Sox lost game one to the Royals as a huge favorite and their bats have been taking it out on K.C. pitching ever since. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia each hit solo home runs while David Ortiz had a grand slam as the Red Sox scored 12 runs off of 16 hits including three hits each by Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Adrian Gonzalez. Starter John Lackey was far from specatacular but he was good enough as he allowed 11 hits and four runs, three of them earned over 5.2 innings of work to get his ninth win of the season. For Thursday’s game Boston starts Josh Beckett who has won five of his last six decisions. For the season Beckett has allowed 80 hits and 29 earned runs while striking out 107 in 126 innings of work.
The Kansas City Royals got off to a big start on Wednesday but their lead didn’t last long as they were pounded by Boston on Wednesday night. Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler both homered and Alex Gordon had three hits and scored twice as the Royals had 16 hits but just five runs which wasn’t nearly enough. On the mound Bruce Chen was absolutely shelled as he allowed 10 hits and 10 runs over four innings to take his fourth loss of the season. For Thursday’s series finale Kansas City starts former number one overall draft choice Luke Hochevar who has two wins and three no decisions in his last five starts, all games the Royals won. For the season Hochevar has allowed 1235 hits and 77 earned runs while striking out 66 in 131 innings of work.
Boston is 25-9 in their last 34 home games, 40-15 in their last 55 games as a favorite, and 24-9 in Beckett’s last 33 home starts. Kansas City is 4-1 in their last five road games against a right handed starter, 5-12 in their last 17 game four of a series, and 2-6 in Hochevar’s last eight starts against the A.L. East. Boston is 5-0 in Beckett’s last five starts against Kansas City.
While I think there is solid value here on Hochevar, the better bet here is the under as this is the best these two have to offer on the mound. I’m taking the under 9.